Iran: Engagement or Containment

As the deadline for the now 2nd round of current negotiations with the dangerous Iranian mullahs fast approaches on November 24, we need to remember who we are dealing with over there.

Despite nearly endless negotiations that have gone on since 2002 (or for almost 13 years ), including yet another round of new talks that began 14 months ago and which were extended already once again...

Just this week, no less than Iran's Foreign Minister and lead negotiator made clear their position on nukes, and it is not favorable to coming to any real agreement:

Here in his own words:

• Iran insists that the U.S. must bow to Iran's "Inalienable Nuclear Rights."

• Despite our wanting to believe that a deal is possible, he states, "Some [Western] countries have fallen prey to miscalculations [about Iran's position] due to wrong analysis."

• He goes on to say, "U.S. sanctions against Iran "have left no impact" on their position. 

While our goal may be for a peaceful Iran without nuclear WMD, "a goal without a [genuine] plan is just a wish!"

Hmm...is this a real partner for peace?

It is recognized that:

1) Iran has one of the world's worst records of human right abuses of their own people! 

2) "Iran is the single largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world."

3) Iran threatens "annihilation" and Genocide to their neighbors in the West. 

We cannot fool ourselves anymore that Iran will ever voluntarily give up their desire or pursuit of The Bomb!

Enough rewarding Iran with billions of dollars in incentives just for coming to the table with no meaningful results. 

Yes ideally, we would all love to celebrate this Thanksgiving with a REAL deal for peace.

However, we don't need a bogus agreement or another meaningless extension that gets the Iranians that much closer to nuclear breakout capability and the world to the next major regional or even global war. 

Albert Einstein said, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Perhaps it's time to change the playbook then...

Engagement is an excellent opportunity with a partner that is willing to seriously negotiate, but containment and ultimately military intervention is necessary when talks are simply a long-running ruse or sham to dangerous nuclear WMD and world terror. 

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Iran: Engagement or Containment

For The Love Of America

Tomorrow is Veterans Day and we remember and honor the sacrifices of so many in securing our freedom and democracy.

Yet, recent events seem to indicate that we are straying from our principles and values as a nation.

• November 6, 2014: Aside from trying to cut what many are calling a "bad deal" with Iran over their dangerous nuclear WMD program, there are now "private letters" being written to partner with arch enemy Iran against ISIS.

• November 8-9, 2014: Just 2-3 days later, we once again see the tyrannical and genocidal intentions of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei calling for the annihilation of one of our closest allies, the State of Israel. 

Hmm...Israel is designated the U.S.'s "Major Strategic Parter," while Iran is a designated State Sponsor of Terrorism.

Short memories? Iran took more than 60 American Hostages for 444 days in the Iran Hostage Crisis of 1979 and they have an ongoing "Horrific Human-Rights Record." 

Was all the sacrifice just for naught--for the love of America, what are we doing?

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

For The Love Of America

Another Day In The Middle East

It can be hard for a regular person to understand the course of events in the Middle East--I certainly don't!

I recognize that I don't know what I don't know, but with all due respect, it would be great if we could all better understand where we are going there. 

- On the 9/11, we were attacked by Al Qaeda hijackers, 15 of 19 of whom were Saudi Arabian, yet after 9/11, we didn't go after Saudi Arabia, but instead overthrew Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

- However, early in the 1980's Iran-Iraq War, we supported Iraq against Iran and permitted the sale of American arms to Hussein. 

- By overthrowing Saddam, in effect we established a Shiite-lead Iraq, right next to a fundamentalist Shiite Iran with a history of conflict with America. 

- In subsequent conflicts, it is not clear whether we are supporting the secularists or the fundamentalists:

a) In Syria, we have been supporting "moderate" Sunni's (although often seen aligned to Al Qaeda) against Bashar al-Assad, and what is considered the "secular Ba'ath party."

b) In Egypt, we withheld military and economic support after the overthrew of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose aims include establishing a state ruled by Sharia law, and an organization that is aligned with Hamas and Hezbollah, both listed as terrorist organizations.

- In Iran, in an attempt to move towards peaceful nuclear disarmament, we are relaxing sanctions on a country that former President George W. Bush, in his State of the Union, declared part of the Axis of Evil (2002), and with an agreement that is viewed as not better than having a 50-50 chance of success. 

If you find this a lot to take in, you are not alone. ;-)

All opinions my own.

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Another Day In The Middle East

With The Courage Of The Maccabees

This is a phenomenal speech by Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu to the United Nations on October 1 2013. 

Some highlights from the speech:

- Iran is building underground uranium and plutonium enrichment facilities, using advanced centrifuges, conducting enrichments to near dangerous levels, and developing the ICBMs to deliver the nuclear weapons. 

- Iran threatens to wipe Israel off the map and chants death to Israel and America.

- Iran is smiling and negotiating, while positioning themselves for a dash over the nuclear finish line. 

- Iran is seeking to provide meaningless concessions and empty promises in return for sanctions relief.

- Nuclear weapons in the hands of the rogue regime of Iran makes nuclear terrorism a clear and present danger.

- Israel will never acquiesce to nuclear weapons in the hands of a rogue regime that threatens to wipe them off the map.

- If Israel is forced to act alone, it will and in so doing be safeguarding many other nations as well. 

- A bludgeoned Jewish people left for dead [after the Holocaust] will defend themselves with the courage of the Maccabees and not compromise on security. 

If you get a chance, it is worth watching the whole thing.

With The Courage Of The Maccabees

A Dangerous Game of WMD

According to ArmsControl.org--in 1994, we reached a historic "agreed framework" with North Korea to "freeze operation and construction of nuclear reactors suspected of being part of a covert nuclear weapons program."

In return, the U.S. would phase out economic sanctions, North Korea would be supplied with 500,000 tons of fuel oil annually, and South Korea would build two lightweight reactors for them.

Fast forward just a decade--by 2005, North Korea declares that it has indeed manufactured nuclear weapons, which are then on display for the world in a nuclear test in 2006.

Today in the Washington Post, we herald another historic deal, this one with Iran that "freezes key parts of their nuclear program."

In return, Iran gets relief from economic sanctions.

Yet, even now as we celebrate this historic agreement, the Iranian President is not dismantling but rather demanding the right to keep their atomic program.

Moreover, just last week, according to USA Today, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei called Israel a "rabid dog" amid chants of "Death to America!"

Online, The Diplomat confidently says this time is different, "Iran is not North Korea," because "Iran is cosmopolitan" and "prides itself on international engagement."

Yet, according to PBS, The Islamic Republic of Iran is far from both of these with a "Supreme Leader who exerts ideological and political control over a system dominated by clerics who shadow every major function of the state."

And Amnesty International writes that Iran has a history of "widening crackdown on dissent that has left journalists, students, political and rights activists, as well as clerics languishing in prisons."

Lest we forget, that Iran is the country that held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days, threatened to annihilate Israel, denied the Holocaust, asserted that the U.S. itself was behind 9/11, and is the "most active state sponsor of terrorism" in the world.  

Oh, how very cosmopolitan!

While we all would hope and pray for a sincere and lasting peace with Iran, this agreement seems to spell a deja vu world of scary WMD cat and mouse, all over again.

(Source Photo: here)

A Dangerous Game of WMD

Remembering the 52 And Hoping For A Real Peace

This week was the 34-year anniversary since the Iran Hostage Crisis (which started on November 4, 1979)

52 Americans were held hostage for a long 444 days.

Now, Iran is negotiating for a relaxation of sanctions imposed due to their hostile nuclear WMD program.

However, there are questions about whether Iran will really give up the nukes that they have pursued for decades or whether this is another stalling tactic.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting concern by Western Allies including Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, and that "Republican and Democratic supporters of Israel said the agreement in the works was far too easy on Iran."

On the positive side, potentially, this is only the "first stage" in the Iran nuclear disarmament process--let's hope. 

We need to ensure a substantive nuclear non-proliferation deal that safeguards America's and allies' security and interests in the region. 

We can all rest easier when the Iranian nuclear capability is fully dismantled, until then this is not a slam dunk for peace. 

(Source Photos: EVResourceSite and Pere Ubu; Mashup by Andy Blumenthal)

Remembering the 52 And Hoping For A Real Peace

Target >>> WMD

At this time, there is a massive debate as well as much confusion going on over what to do about Syria's alleged use of chemical weapons, and their brutal civil war against a mixed element of fighters (some moderates and many other dangerous fundamentalists).

On one hand, people are saying they don't want to get involved in yet another conflict (after 10 years with Iraq and Afghanistan) and this is most understandable. 

On the other hand, we are talking about extremely dangerous regimes like Iran and Syria that are pursuing, prepared to use, or have used weapons of mass destruction.

Taking out Syria's extensive chemical weapons facilities are good targets to prevent further use against their own people, their neighbors, or us, except that we have to be careful not to end up helping our arch enemy, Al Qaeda, who is fighting to establish a foothold there, in the process.

Many are saying that this attack on Syria would really be a warning or even a precursor to destroying the proliferating Iranian nuclear sites--which are even better targets due to the regime's terrorist underpinnings and genocidal ambitions.

As long as Iran and Syria are able to pursue these WMD programs, how can we really be safe?

The red line is genocide, and Iran and Syria are there--one in explicit horrific threats of nuclear holocaust and the other in dastardly deeds with chemical weapons or otherwise brutal slaughter of civilians.

This is a very complicated world situation, and we really don't know the true motivations of any player, but the stakes are so high with WMD--there is no room for error. 

(Source Graphic: Andy Blumenthal with attribution to James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and 1155/New Scientist Global Security)

Target >>> WMD

Like Buying A Nuke On The Black Market

Buying a serious computer vulnerability is now like acquiring a nuke on the black market. 

Nations and terrorists will pay to find the fatal flaw in computer programs that will enable them to perpetrate everything from subversive cyber spying to potentially massively destructive cyber attacks. 

As the world is focused on nuclear non-proliferation, computer weapons are the new nukes--able to do everything from a targeted strike on an organization or agency to taking out vast swaths of our nation's critical infrastructure.

According to the New York Times (13 July 2013), there is a great interest in buying "zero-day exploits"--one where governments or hackers can strike using a computer vulnerability before anyone even knows about it and can correct it. 

The average zero-day exploit persists for "312 days--before it is detected"--giving amble time for attackers to cash-in!

Brokers are now working to market the computer flaws for a 15% cut, with some even "collecting royalty fees for every month their flaw is not discovered."

The average flaw "now sells for around $35,000 to $160,000" and some companies that are selling these are even charging an annual $100,000 subscription fee to shop their catalog of computer vulnerabilities in addition to the cost for each one that varies with it's sophistication and the pervasiveness of the operating system behind the exploit. 

While governments and terrorists are on the prowl to buy the exploits for offensive purposes, technology companies are competing to purchase them and are offering "bug bounties" in order to identify the flaws and fix them before they are exploited. 

We've come a long way from people and organizations buying software with their regular upgrades and patches to nations and hackers buying the knowledge of the flaws--not to patch--but to spy or harm their adversaries. 

You can buy the bomb shelter or software patch, but someone else is buying the next more lethal bomb or vulnerability--the question is who will pay more to get the next exploit and when and how will they use it. 

(Graphic by Andy Blumenthal adapted from here with attribution for the mushroom cloud photo to Andy Z.)

Like Buying A Nuke On The Black Market

World 2020

Forbes Magazine (7 September 2010) has an interesting look ahead at the world over the next ten years.

There were some notable predictions that stood out in terms of the good, the bad, and the ugly:

• 2011: The Terrafugia flying car goes on sales for $200,000. (GOOD—roads are congested)
• 2012: Oil prices skyrocket following Israeli raid on Iranian nukes. (GOOD—nuclear non-proliferation/ BAD—oil prices) Facebook IPOs at $40 billion. (GOOD—social media still sizzling)
• 2014:Marines deploy tens of thousands of HULC3 exoskeletons—robotic suits—to soldiers in Afghanistan. Lockheed Martin suits increases strength and endurance. (GOOD—“the edge” goes to our warfighters)
• 2016: First Internet balloting for U.S. President with 7% of votes cast online. (GOOD—the old ballot machines are so like “yesterday”)
• 2018: Trans Euro-Asia Express—world’s fastest train arrives in Paris from Bejing, break 300 MPH record. (Good—alternative to airlines)
• 2019: U.S. Life expectancy declines for first time in a century; doctors blame 55% obesity rate. (UGLY—“meaning really bad”—national health is in serious jeopardy)
• 2020: WalMart sales pass $1 trillion...now employs 5 million worldwide. (GOOD—low prices/BAD—low paying jobs) First privately owned spacecraft lands 6 men and 2 women on moon. (GOOD—Thanks Virgin Galactic; Star Trek is a closer reality: "To boldly go...")

Here are ten more predictions I’d like to see (from Forbes or others) in terms of what happens to:

1. World peace (e.g. Middle-east)
2. Cure for cancer (and other horrible illnesses)
3. Economy
4. Federal deficit
5. Freedom and human rights
6. Environment (including global warming)
7. Osama bin Laden (and his terrorist henchmen)
8. Everything new technology (insatiable appetite for this one!)
9. Best careers (so I can advise the youngsters)
10. Stock market (hey, wouldn’t it be great to know) :-)

World 2020