It's Getting Mighty Hot

This is a advertisement around Washington DC alerting people to the dangers of global warming.

"I'm Too Hot"

And 

"9 of the 10 hottest years have occurred since 2000."

Wait a second, for some (or many) a little extra heat may be considered a good thing especially if you live up north with generally freezing cold and miserably snowy winters.

So don't just tell us about it getting hotter, but tell us how hot is it actually going to get and what will happen when it does--melting glaciers, rising oceans and catastrophic flooding of cities, weather abnormalities and violent natural disasters, and so on.

We need to move on to the substance of this. 

Just like with the national debt, we keep talking about it going up (and up). 

Well what's so bad about that if we can just print some more greenbacks and pay for more stuff, maybe it's a good--or great--investment in our country and future?

Here again, the message that isn't getting out clearly is what is going to happen when the debt becomes unsustainable and printing or devaluing dollars will not solve the problem and may actually exasperate it by creating run-away inflation, a downgraded or junk credit rating, and higher debt payments possibly tanking our economy and people's savings.

Yeah, we don't want to cause a panic. 

But shielding people from vital information on the dangerous paths we are on will only lead to going further down into the abyss of non-action and potential for cascading calamity. 

Let's face it--it's unpopular to talk anything doom or gloom--financial crises or natural disasters or especially anything with WMD--but if we aren't the adults in the political room, who will be? 

For once, I'd love a leader who tells it straight, who helps us face our own worst nightmares, and actually gets us back on track again, rather than keeps the wool pulled over our eyes for another term or two.

Leadership is lost in rosy glasses, vote counting, pundits called upon to obscure the truth from the people, keeping a false calm, and creating wildly inflated legacies.

These motives for now are stronger than the determination to deal with the threats we face, but not forever, and then the pendulum will most abruptly swing in the other direction, precariously late for the ensuing global effects. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

It's Getting Mighty Hot

Freak Accidents, Illnesses, And Events

Dave Goldberg, the CEO of Survey Monkey (and the husband of Sheryl Sandberg, the COO of Facebook), died suddenly in a freakish accident falling off a treadmill and hitting his head. 

Poof...dead at age 47!

Unfortunately, we hear all the time about these type of tragic occurrences to people.

And of course tragedy knows no bounds--so while sh*t happens everyday to people from all walks of life, we tend to pay more attention when it's someone we know and love or when it's splashed wildly in the news about fabulously successful people we admire and follow. 

- Entertainer, Michael Jackson (50) dead from drug intoxication after suffering cardiac arrest.

- Actor, Robin Williams (63) dead by hanging suicide. 

- Singer, John Lennon (40) shot in the back by someone he had autographed an album for.

- Martial Artist, Bruce Lee (33) died on a movie set from a cerebral edema.

- Model, Marilyn Monroe (33) dead by drug overdose.

- President, John F. Kennedy (46) dead by assassination.

Whether by a plane crash or car accident, drowning or fire, poison or electrocution, a criminal or animal attack, terrorism, war, or natural disaster, a heart attack, stroke, or cancer, through suicide, punishment, or mercy killing...regardless of the probabilities and statistics, many people never make it all the way to "a ripe old age." 

We feel bad, shake our heads, say a few words of sympathy perhaps, when we hear of these lives cut short.

But like the TV shows, Six Feet Under (HBO) or 1000 Ways To Die (Spike)--there are a near endless number of horrible ways to go--and they can take you at literally any time.

While we can't stop living and just sit around worrying all the time about all the bad things that can happen, we do need to remember that anything can happen at any time (and these things are not so freakish after all)--no one is beyond the Angel of Death, no one should be arrogant, and we should make the most of every single moment that G-d lovingly grants to us.  ;-)

(Source Photo: here with attribution to Military Health)

Freak Accidents, Illnesses, And Events

Mayim Chaim

You can only live about 3 days without water--that's why protecting our water is so critical.

Emergency Management (May/June 2013) says, "There are numerous ongoing threats to our water supply. Some of them [natural or man made] could be catastrophic."

- Water poisoning: Already in the 1st century, Roman Emperor Nero poisoned the wells of his enemies.  These days you'd need a large supply, like "several dump trucks of cyanide or arsenic to poison a reservoir.  Plus the water system is monitored and has purification protections such as chlorine, so it's not that simple. We can also issue "boil alerts" for people to boil the water before drinking it. Then again, we saw what some radiation did to the Japanese water supplies after Fukushima.

- Blowing it up: The water system infrastructure can be disrupted using explosives, so keeping intruders far away from it is important to keeping it safe.

- Earthquakes/Hurricanes: Much of the water system pipes are old--some built during the Civil War--and these can be destroyed by natural disasters or even a construction crew jackhammer hitting in the wrong place. 

- Electrical outage: If you shut down the electricity, you shut down the water pumps...and even with generators taking over for a while, your up against the clock, if you don't get the juice flowing again soon. 

- Cyber Attack: Our water systems, like other industrial control systems are vulnerable to cyber attack. A hacker that gets control of the systems could overheat it, overtreat it, flood it, or otherwise break it and shut it down. 

Keeping our water infrastructure secure, the water supply safe and potable, the transport pipes intact, the electricity working, and the systems under control--are not little matters--they are the difference between life and death for millions. 

As in The Rime of The Ancient Mariner, when the ship gets blown off course into unchartered waters and the crew is thirsty for water and desperate to survive, the poet states, "Water, Water. Everywhere. And All The Boards Did Shrink; Water, Water, Everywhere. Nor Any Drop To Drink."

In Hebrew, there is a short saying that sums up this topic, "Mayim Chaim"--water is life. ;-)

(Source Photo: Dannielle Blumenthal)

Mayim Chaim

Zombie Homeland Security Training 101

Unbelievable. The Halo Counter-terrorism Summit (Oct 29-Nov. 2, 2012) is hosting a mock Zombie Invasion as part of its emergency response training for about a 1,000 special ops, military, police, medical, firefighter, and other homeland security professionals. 

The Zombie Apocalypse training exercise is occurring mid-summit on October 31, Halloween--so it is quite timely for other ghoulish activities that day. 

There are two sessions--#1 at 4:30 PM and #2 at 7:00 PM.

Both the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) of The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have posted the CDC's Zombie Preparedness guidance--saying that "if you are generally well equipped to deal with a zombie apocalypse you will be prepared for a hurricane, pandemic, earthquake, or terrorist attack."

I guess this is very good news with Hurricane Sandy or "Frakenstorm" bearing down on the East Coast this evening.  Zombies, you ain't got nothing on Frakenstorm! 

In Yahoo News, Brad Barker, the President of Halo Corp., explained why Zombies are good for training, especially in asymmetric warfare: "No one knows what zombies will do in our scenario, but quite frankly no one knows what a terrorist will do."

Barker also jested that "No doubt when a zombie apocalypse occurs, it's going to be a federal incident, so we're making it happen."

Frankly, I love to see this type of creativity brought to national and homeland security and believe that this makes it less likely that we'll be perpetually fighting yesterday's war, instead of tomorrow's. 

The key is that we think out of the box in terms of what will the adversary do next--from cyberwar to weapons of mass destruction, we can't afford to be blindsighted. 

So do I think that aliens or zombies are coming for us some day--let's just say, never say never. ;-)

Zombie Homeland Security Training 101

Existential Threats--Real or Imagined?

Should we worry about something that hasn't happened to us yet?

Wired Magazine (Sept. 2012) has an interesting article called Apocalypse Not.

Its thesis is that "people freak out over end-of-the world scenarios" and they should know better because despite all the fear and predictions of catastrophe, nothing ever really happens.

It categorizes the doomsday cataclysms into 4 types:

1) Chemicals--these come form things like pesticides (like DDT), smoking, and CFCs, and result in air pollution, acid rain, ozone depletion, and climate change.

2) Disease--recent fears of pandemics were associated with bird flu, swine flu, SARS, AIDS, ebola, and mad cow disease.

3) People--we can cause our own hell through population explosion and famine and although it didn't mention this, I would assume the brutality and wars that can wipe entire races out.

4) Resources--Peak oil theory, metals and minerals, and other resource constraints have been causes of consternation leading us to look for alternative energy sources and even recently consider mining minerals on asteroids.

The article goes so far as to poke fun at those who are concerned about these things even stating that "The one thing we'll never run out of is imbeciles."

Wired does acknowledge that while "over the past half-century, none of our threatened eco-pocalypses have played out as predicted. Some came partly true; some were averted by action; [and still] some were wholly chimerical."

What the author, Matt Ridley, has missed here in his logic are a few main things:

- Smaller things add to big things--While each individual issue may not have reached the catastrophic tipping point been yet, these issues can certainly progress and even more so, in the aggregate, pose dangerous situations that we may be unable to contain. So you can choose to live with blinders on for today, but the consequences of our choices are inescapable and may only be around the next bend.

-Recognizing the future--just because things like death and final judgement haven't happened to us yet, doesn't mean that they aren't in store for us in the future. This sort of reminds me of this Jewish joke that no one leaves this world alive.

- Destructive powers are multiplying--many destructive forces were traditionally local events, but are now becoming existential threats to whole civilizations. For example, how many people globally can we kill with weaponized pathogens and how many times over now are we able to destroy the world with our thermonuclear stockpile.

- Learn from the past--Apocalypses and terrible events have already befallen humankind, whether the bubonic plague in the middle ages, the destruction of the ice age, the flood in biblical times, and even more recently the Holocaust and the World Wars in the 20th century.

Unfortunately, there is no shortage of bad things that can happen to people--individuals or many people--and if we are not conscious of the things we are doing, their potential impacts, and generally act smart and ethical, then bad things can and will most-definitely happen.

Wired ends by saying that things like policy, technology, and innovation can solve the day. However, while these can surely help and we must always try our best to have a positive impact, some things are also out of our control--they are in G-d hands.

Finally, while not every event is an existential threat, some surely can be--and whether it's the impact of an asteroid, the death toll from the next horrible plague, natural disaster, cyberwar, or weapon of mass destruction, or even possibly when aliens finally come knocking at your door, it would be awfully stupid to think that bad things can't happen.

(Source Photo: here with attribution to tanakawho)

Existential Threats--Real or Imagined?

Boy Loses Arm, Girl Loses Memory

I had the opportunity to watch an absolutely brilliant movie called Aftershock (2010) about the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (7.8 on the Richter scale) that leveled the city and killed more than 240,000 people in China. 

The movie is beautifully filmed and the events recreated with tremendous clarity--I could feel as if I was there and I literally cried for the these poor people. 

In the film a women is saved in the quake by her husband who dies trying to go back into the falling building to save their children--twins, a boy and a girl, age 6--who themselves end up buried under the rubble.  

The mother begs others to save (both) her children, but a rescuer tells her that when they try to move the concrete slab that's pinning them down--this way or that--it will mean that one of her children will die.

She cannot choose, but at the risk of losing both children, she finally says "save my son."  

The girl hears her beneath the rubble--and tears are running down her face with the emotional devastation of not being chosen by her own mother for life.

The mother carries what she believes is her daughter's dead body and lays it next to the husband--she weeps and begs forgiveness.

The story continues with rebirth and renewal...the boy survives but loses his arm in the quake and the girl also lives but loses her memory (first from post-traumatic stress--she can't even talk--then apparently from the anger at her mother's choice).

Each child faces a daunting future with their disabilities--the boy physically and the girl emotionally, but each fights to overcome and ultimately succeed.

The boy who is feared can never do anything with only one arm--ends up with a  successful business, family, home, car, and caring for his heart-broken mother. 

The girl who is raised by army foster parents struggles to forgive her mother--"it's not that I don't remember, it's that I can't forget"--and after 32 years finally goes back and heals with her.  

The mother never remarries--she stays married in her mind to the man who loved her so much and sacrificed his life for hers.  And she stays in Tangshan--never moving, waiting somehow for her daughter to return--from the (un)dead--but she is emotionally haunted all the years waiting and morning--"You don't know what losing something means until you've lost it."

The brother and sister finally find each other as part of the Tangshan Rescue Team--they each go back to save others buried in the 2008 Sichuan earthquake that killed almost another 70,000.

Some amazing themes from the movie: 

- "You're family is always your family," even despite wrongs that we do to each other, we are challenged to somehow find forgiveness and to love and extend ourselves for those who have given so much to us. 

- "Some people are living, others only suffer." After the earthquake, as with any such disaster, the living question why they survived and other didn't. Similarly, we frequently ask ourselves, why some people seem to have it "so good," while others don't. But as we learn, each of us has our own mission and challenges to fulfill.

- Disabilities or disadvantages--physical or emotional--may leave others or ourselves thinking that we couldn't or wouldn't succeed, but over time and with persistence we can overcome a missing arms or a broken heart, if we continue to have faith and do the right things.

I loved this movie--and the progression from the horrific destruction of the earthquake to the restoration and renewal of life over many years of struggle was a lesson in both humility of what we mortals are in the face of a trembling ground beneath us or the sometimes horrible choices we have to make, and the fortitude we must show in overcoming these. 

(Source Photo: here)

Boy Loses Arm, Girl Loses Memory

End Of The World, Almost

Recently, I have become addicted to a number of shows on the Discovery channel.

I know it sounds sort of boring, right?--but they actually have some fairly macho and educational shows.

From survivalist shows like Dual Survival, Man Vs. Wild, Man Woman Wild, to shows about special forces training like Surviving the Cut and even One Man Army.

I also enjoy this new show called Curiosity that "asks and answers the most fundamental questions facing the world today" such as Is There a Parallel Universe? or How Will the World End?

In "How Will The World End", Discovery explores 5-almost end of the world scenarios, as follows:

1) Arc Storm -- Similar to the flood from the bible, where it rains incessantly for a month or so, but unlike the flood that destroys the world, this one hits a specific area like California. Anticipated dead is 380,000 and injured 1,140,000. (10% chance in the next 50 years)

2) Asteroid Strike - Like a number of movies such as Deep Impact that forewarn of the dire consequences of a direct hit to our planet, a moderate collision would kill 60,000 and injure 200,000. (5% chance of occurrence over the lives of our children)

3) Mega-Earthquake - Hitting approximately 5 states in the midwest and killing 600,000 and injuring 2,000,000. (10% chance in 50 years)

4) Mile-High Tsunami - Traveling at 500 mph, wiping out the eastern seaboard and killing 4,000,000. (Probability is one in a 1000)

5) Super Volcano - Major series of volcanic eruptions in Yellowstone National Park that spews ash virtually covering the entire planet and would kill 100,000,000 people. (Scientists estimate this happens every 600,000 years)

While the last 2 end of life scenarios are quite remote, the first three taken together yield an almost 25% chance of a doomsday-like scenario over the next 50 years and this is just those scenarios--it doesn't account for a maniac detonating a nuclear packed suitcase bomb or spreading an infectious biological disease across the globe.

These foreboding predictions about what could happen can easily depress and make us feel that even trying is hopeless.

But this morning, I listened on TV to Joel Osteen, who gives a pretty darn good sermon, and he said regarding faith, "Do every day what you can and then let it go!"

While we have to do everything we can to protect our world and make it safe and sustainable, some things truly are beyond human control.

And once we've done our part and our best, we've got to step back and just have some faith, as Joel Osteen says: "Don't put a question mark where G-d puts a period"--that really resonates.

We can ask why this or that happens, but at the end of the day, what G-d decides for us is often beyond our mere human comprehension.

Easier said than done for sure, especially, when facing down situations scarier than any shown or imagined in the survival shows mentioned.

So Dave and Cody--And Seal Team Six--even you guys are outgunned when the hand of G-d says it's time for history to take a major turn of events.

But as Joel Osteen would say, I'll just put that in the "I don't understand it" file.

(Source Photo: here)

End Of The World, Almost

Avoiding The Ultimate In Surprise

Everyone remember the I Love Lucy show? Well, that show really epidemized what it meant to surprise and be surprised by all the antics that the main character, Lucy, got into--show after show.

One thing that's very clear is that no one really likes surprises (except maybe for some comic relief and that's one reason I believe the show was the most popular season after season).

So what's the problem with surprises? They are not inherently bad--there can be good surprise and bad ones.

The issue is really that people want to be prepared for whatever is coming there way.

Even surprise parties or gifts somehow seem sweeter when the recipient isn't completely "taken by surprise."

One of my bosses used to often repeat to the team, "I don't like surprises!"

Hence, the importance of what we all got in the habit of saying--communicate, communicate, communicate--early and often.

With the tragic tornados that struck last week across the south killing some 329 people, we are reminded how important early warning to surprises in life can be.

The Wall Street Journal reports today that new technologies are being developed for early warning of these tornados such as:

- Visual cues--Antennas that can track cloud-to-loud lighting, which is often invisible from the ground, but it "drops sharply in a storm just before a tornado develops" and can therefore provide early detection for those that can see it.

- Sound waves--Using "infrasonic microphones" we can pick up storm sounds from as far as 500 miles away at frequencies too low to be detected by the human ear and can filter out the noise to track the storm's severity and speed, and therefore hear in advance if it is turning dangerous.

Early warning saves lives...even a few extra minutes can provide the much needed time for a person to get to a shelter.

After the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami which killed more than 230,000 people, an early warning system was put in place there and again with the the recent Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 2011, we see the ongoing need for these efforts to advance globally.

These efforts for early detection and alerts have always been around.

Already thousands of years ago, settlers built lookout towers and fire signals to get and give early notice of an advancing army, marauders, dangerous beasts, or other pending dangers.

Nowadays, we have satellites and drones providing "eyes in the sky" and other technologies (like the proverbial trip wires and so on) are being developed, refined, and deployed to protect us.

Advance warning and preparation is important for risk management and life preservation and leveraging technology to the max for these purposes is an investment that is timeless and priceless.

The challenge is in identifying the greatest risks (i.e. those with the most probability of happening and the biggest impact if they do) so that we can make our investments in the technologies to deal with them wisely.

Avoiding The Ultimate In Surprise

Social Order In Chaos And In Calm

Less than two months after devastating earthquakes on 12 January 2010 toppled much of Port-Au-Price, Haiti leaving more than 220,000 dead and 1.3 million homeless, there are indications of social order reemerging (WSJ 8 March 2010).

The rise of social order in the aftermath of the Haitian earthquake is occurring in the tent cities that have sprung up and is especially amazing given that the formal government is still in disarray.

In the tent cities, “committees agitate to secure food, water and supplies in high demand from international aid organizations.”

In one encampment, the makeshift “President” of the tent city of 2,000 stated: “we knew we wouldn’t receive any assistance unless we formed a committee…there is no government but us.”

So the people organized and formed an “executive committee,” took a census, provided aid organizations lists of their residents to help in the distribution of aid, and have even started to issue identification cards. Committees are also setting up people to work as security guards for “keeping the peace.”

To me, there are many lessons from this story of hope and reemergence:

1. Order prevails over chaos: Even amidst some of the most horrific events shattering lives and communities, social order takes root again and drives away the surrounding chaos. While conditions on the ground are still horrific, people realize that they are stronger planning and working together for the greater good than wallowing in a state of pandemonium and fighting each other.

2. Governance emerges even in the absence of government: Structured decision-making is so basic to societal functioning that it emerges even in the absence of strong formal government institutions. So certainly with government intact and vital, we need to establish sound governance to meet the needs of our constituents in a transparent, organized, and just fashion.

3. “Where there is life, there is hope”—this is an old saying that I used to hear at home from my parents and grandparents and it seems appropriate with the dire situation in Haiti. Despite so much death and suffering there, the people who survived, have reason to be hopeful in the future. They are alive to see another day—and despite its enormous challenges—can rebuild and make for a better tomorrow.

These lessons are consistent with the notion to me of what enterprise architecture is all about—the creation of order out of chaos and the institution of meaningful planning and governance as the basis for ongoing sustainment and advancement of the institutions they support.

Finally, it shouldn’t take a disaster like an earthquake for any of us to realize that these elements of social order are the basic building blocks that we all depend on to survive and thrive.

The real question is why in disaster we eventually band together, but in times of calm we tear each other apart?

Social Order In Chaos And In Calm

Internet Apocalypse and Enterprise Architecture

It is the 21^st century and we are a nation dependent on everything internet. We rely on the internet for communications, like email, text messaging, and even voice over IP. We also use the internet for getting news and information, social networking, storing and sharing blogs, videos, music, and photos, accessing various applications, shopping, and conducting financial transactions.

What happens if the internet is attacked or otherwise fails us?

This is the question asked in ComputerWorld, 21 January 2008: “If the internet goes down will you be ready?”

ComputerWorld states: “It’s likely that the internet will soon experience a catastrophic failure, a multiday outage that will cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars. Or maybe it isn’t likely. In any case, companies are not prepared for such a possibility.”

The Business Roundtable says: “The threat is ‘urgent and real.’ There is a 10% to 20% chance of a ‘breakdown of the critical information infrastructure’ in the next 1o years brought on by ‘malicious code, coding error, natural disaster, [or] attacks by terrorists and other adversaries.’”

What will be the effect of a major internet interruption?

“An internet meltdown would result in reduced productivity and profits, falling stock prices, erosion of consumer spending, and potentially a liquidity crisis.” It would disrupt our everyday ability to communicate, get and share information, work and conduct transactions. And let’s not forget the effect on the human psyche—there would be chaos.

Why have we not prepared ourselves adequately?

The Business Roundtable says that “business executives often fail to realize how dependent they have become on the public network—for email, collaboration, e-commerce, public-facing and internal Web sites, and information retrieval by employees.”

Where are we most vulnerable?

The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) says that “the Internet is pretty robust at the physical layer. There are just too many alternate paths available. But the Internet is not so robust at other layers.” Hence, the risk of operating system failures, penetration by worms, and denial of service attacks.

Is there any reason for optimism?

The CIO of Yuma County, Arizona, reminds us that the Internet “having been based on the Arpanet [from DoD] and designed to keep functioning when pieces are broken, it seems less likely that the entire Internet would stop working.”

What can enterprises do to prepare for the worst?

Of course, all organizations need to fully address security concerns in terms of managerial, operational, and technical controls.

They need the best and brightest security personnel.

Additionally, they need to perform regular risk assessments, vulnerability testing, intrusion detection and prevention, back-up and recovery.

They need to have strict access controls, security awareness training of employees and contractors, and an IT security policy.

Our organizations need a comittment to continuity of operations planning (COOP).

ComputerWorld points out that the financial services sector is out in front in making preparations Here’s some of the architectural preparations that financial companies have undertaken:

• Dedicated networks—“set up dedicated networks independent of phone companies.”
• Guaranteed diverse routing—“negotiate more aggressively with communications companies to guarantee diverse routing.”
• Geographic dispersal—“separate data centers and communications centers more widely geographically.”

In general, enterprises need “diversity and redundancy” of communications.

Most importantly, we need to recognize the risks out there and prepare, prepare, prepare.

Internet Apocalypse and Enterprise Architecture