Showing posts with label Missile Defense. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Missile Defense. Show all posts

October 28, 2017

Deterrence Alone Is Not A Strategy

So there is a military doctrine that has been in place for decades. 

- MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction 

If you attack the USA with weapons of mass destruction, you'll get an overwhelming responses that will totally destroy your country. 

This was what supposedly held the USSR at bay during the cold war. 

And even recently, President Trump threatened North Korea that they would be "totally destroyed" if they try anything on us. 

The problem is that the MAD doctrine of deterrence assumes incorrectly that you are always dealing with rational actors and not with madmen.

Let's face it, their are plenty of crazies out there, and some of whom may be willing to go down in a "blaze of glory" as long as they stand up to the United States and die a heroes death for their radicalized or "subjected" people. 

Whether it's Iran or North Korea or others--we may not know what we are really dealing with here until it's too late. 

Life is not everything to these people--remember many a terrorist has died a martyrs death with the promise of 72 virgins in heaven awaiting them. 

To some, as Prime Minister Gold Meir stated:
"Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us!"

Hate by virtue of perceived injustice, required Jihad or "holy war," brainwashing or threats and the desire for a "glorious death" standing up to the infidels or the "great Satan...any of all of these can contribute to ignoring the consequences. 

Israel has tried to deter horrible homicide bombers/and other mad terrorists from performing their evil misdeeds on the civilian population by for example, demolishing the terrorist homes as a potent consequence that they know going into it, yet many terrorists still wear the explosive vests and detonate anyway.

Similarly, North Korea despite the President's threat that they "will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen," brushed it off and shot off more volleys of ICBMs and threatened to engulf Guam in fire. 

- The point is that deterrence alone is not a strategy!

If our enemies can hit us with a devastating attack--whether WMD, cyber, EMP, or quantum attack-- that can inflict immeasurable harm on us--they may actually choose to take their best shot, rather than wait for us to hit them or continue to feel disrespected, subjected, inferior, and hopeless.

To someone on the radical fringes or the mental edge, maybe--just maybe--they will do the unthinkable and surprise us.

What good will our fire and fury counterstrike do us, when our cities are in ruin and our people dead and dying en masse. 

Revenge isn't so sweet when your family, homeland, and virtually everything you know and held dear is gone.

The only real military strategy is to be able to defend ourselves and AVOID getting a homeland catastrophe!

We need massive investment and expertise in missile defense, bio defense, cyber defense, quantum computing, and expansive hardening of our critical infrastructure.

Unfortunately, as naysayers to the threats abound, we are no where near where we need to be in protecting the homeland.

If one person falls from the high wire and smashes their head, what good is it that the other person falls and suffers similarly or worse. 

The point is not to fall, not to get hurt, not to die, not to have our country and way of life destroyed.

Deterrence does not guarantee this security to the country--especially when dealing with no shortage of radicalized nuts out there. 

Only a genuine defense that can STOP and counter the threats BEFORE a devastating attack happens and hits us is a strategy worth pursuing ...and THEN you can punch the other person squarely in their devil's face!

Without an adequate defensive strategy, get ready, because every high flying act eventually falls to the ground and hits their head hard. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)
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July 21, 2015

The Merkava IV With Anti-Missile System




I came across this video and photo online of the Israeli Mekava IV Tank with the Trophy Anti-Missile System. 

This tank looks so cool--a little fortress on treads. 

And with the Trophy system it can track and take out incoming missiles with a shotgun like blast. 

For a small country like Israel in the middle of a pretty bad and dangerous neighborhood--this is a necessity. 

Great for defending the Holy Land! ;-)

(Source Photo: here with attribution to Michael Shvadron)
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January 21, 2015

Stop The Nuclear Threat

Before we get too rosy on the State of the Union...

Fascinating article in Forbes on the threat from nuclear armageddon. 

- The Russians nuclear missile survivability is improving with missiles "equiped with four warheads that can be independently targeted."

- Typical yield is 500 kilotons--"equivalent to half a million tons of conventional explosives."

- The impact of a single nuclear explosion is that it heats the targeted areas to a "few thousand degrees."

- If/when exploded over a major city, "everything within a one-mile radius is destroyed, heavy damage extends to three miles, and fires will be widespread out to five miles."

- People at ground zero will be annihilated immediately "by the blast effects or a wind-spread firestorm...(initial wind speed 700 mph)" 

- Those father from the epicenter will "linger longer before succumbing to the effects of prompt and delayed radiation."

- Due to the magnetic pulse, "electronic devices will be shut down for a hundred miles in every direction."

- How many long range nuclear missiles does Russia have? Over 2,000 (that are known)!

- Just 50, would leave every American city with over half a million people, "uninhabitable."

Now think about the Mullahs of Iran targeting, America, "The Great Satan," should they get this capability.

And do you think a Congressionally, bipartison endorsed, deadline-triggered sanctions on Iran should be vetoed or championed by the administration to stop this threat? 

May G-d bless us with the wisdom and strength of character to see through the delay tactics and subterfuge of our enemies and remove this real threat from us.

As to the Russians' strategic nuclear arsenal, we better get moving along on Reagan's Star Wars Strategic Defense Initiative--because 2,000 is a heck of a lot of incoming! ;-)

(Source Photo: here with attribution to CX15)
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July 26, 2014

Antimissile System for Airlines


Elbit Systems has an antimissile system that can protect commercial airlines from short range, shoulder fired missiles (MANPADs).

The military air fleet of the U.S., U.K., and Australia already have installed such devices to protect them.

Another system by Northrop Grumman is installed for heads of state like on Air Force One and Germany has ordered it for their Chancellor's plane. 

But the Elbit C-Music is being used already on Israel's commercial airlines, El AL and Israir. 

The thermal targeting device of C-Music uses a precise laser to deflect the incoming heat seeking ground to air missiles and save the passengers and plane. 

According to the Wall Street Journal, a bill to mandate such devices for American commercial airlines would cost approximately $43 billion over 20 years. 

While this system would not work against the type of sophisticated multiple launch rocket systems that brought down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, it would go along way to enhance our anti-terrorism measures and protect Americans and other travelers coming to/from the U.S. 

Please don't shoot down this idea...  ;-)
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February 1, 2014

We're Dead And We Don't Even Know It

We all know the frightening threat of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) heading over the ice caps--from Russia, China, and even North Korea someday) and landing in our "backyards" destroying life as we know it. 

But what The Washington Beacon reports about the arms race to new ultra-high speed missiles means we are probably dead already and don't even know it. 

These new missiles being developed by China, Russia, India, and the U.S. are designed to be so fast, so small, go so low ("ground-hugging), and be so maneuverable with precision guided systems that they may completely evade all our missile defenses (long-range interceptors, medium-range sea and land-based interceptors, and short-range, near target interceptors).

China tested one of these on Jan. 9--it would sit atop an ICBM and "then glide and maneuver at speeds of up to 10 times the speed of sound from near space en route to its target."

It "takes off towards its target from near space, or less than 62 miles from earth."

Traveling at Mach 10 or 7,680 miles per hour, the warhead would hit accordingly to my calculation in under 30 seconds!

These hypersonic weapons can be loaded on the last stages of ICBMS, submarine missiles, aboard strategic bombers, on cruise missiles, and even on surveillance drones. 

This is the "hypersonic arms race" and the winner has asymmetric warfare advantage and can take out their opponent before the other guy even knows what hit them.

The good news is that the U.S. is testing the Lockheed HTV-2, Hypersonic Technology Vehicle, capable of Mach 20 (13,000 mph), and within the next 10-15 years we expect "rapid kill" to be able to "attack any location on earth within an hour." 

Note: the diameter of the earth is only 7,926 miles so if we can achieve Mach 20, it will actually only take us about 36 minutes!

So conventional missile defense is a bust, which leaves kinetic weapons and lasers (high-speed hit-to-kill capabilities) as our last defensive hope, as Ian Easton of the Project 2049 Institute said, "If there is a great power war in this century, it will not begin with the sound of explosions on the ground and in the sky, but rather with the bursting of kinetic energy and the flashing of laser light in the silence of outer space."

What follows though is anything that gets through these defenses rings will destroy everything down here before you would even have enough time to read this post.

In a sense, we're all dead already, and this is a very small foreshadowing testament. 

(Source Photo: here with attribution to Jonathan McIntosh)
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May 22, 2013

Blackout Nation

We are reaching an exciting but dangerous phase of technology adoption where our dependence is virtually complete. 

From mobile to social computing, from telecommunications to transportation, from industrial systems to electronic health records, from banking to eCommerce, from homeland security to national defense--we are dependent on technology.

But while technology proliferates everywhere, so do the risks. 

Bloomberg BusinessWeek (16 May 2003) in an article called "The City That Runs On Sensors" talks about how initiatives like IBM's smart-cities is bringing sensors and technology to everything running our towns--"Smart [city] innovation is improving our economic fabric and the quality of our life."

The flip side is an editorial in today's Wall Street Journal by former CIA director James Woolsey and Peter Pry who served on the congressional EMP commission warning how "A single nuke exploded above America could cause a national blackout for months" or years (stated later in article)

They write that "detonating a nuclear weapon high above any part of the U.S. mainland would generate a catastrophic electromagnetic pulse" (EMP)--and that this "would collapse the electric grid and other infrastructure that depends on it."

This would be a national blackout of epic proportions that would impact all areas for 21st century sustainment of 311 million lives. Think for yourself--what would you be able to do and not do without the computers and telecommunications that you use every day? 

Woolsey and Pry call for a preemptive surgical strike, for example, to prevent North Korean development of an ICMB capable of inflicting a nuclear EMP strike, but you can imagine other nations that pose a similar threat. 

While be beef up our Cyber Corps and attempt to strengthen our tools, methods, and configurations, this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to securing cyberspace. 

Cybersecurity is more than just protecting us from malware infiltration and exfiltration--because the whole IT system that our society is built on can be wiped out not by cyber attack alone, but rather by collapsing the very electronic infrastructure that we rely on with a pulse of electromagnetic radiation that will fry the very circuits that run our devices. 

While we build firewalls and put up intrusion detection and prevention guards and establish a court system of antivirus and spamware to put away violators and so on, how shall we prepare for a pulse attack that can incapacitate the electronics underpinnings--security and all? 

"Star Wars" missile defense, preemptive action, and hardening of critical infrastructure are all security options--it costs money to keep the IT lights on, but better to pay now, then pay catastrophically bigger later. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)


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November 19, 2011

Will You Survive?

If you are interested in your chances of survival in the event of a nuclear blast, check out the website for Would I Survive a Nuke?
I ran the simulation as if was still living in my old neighborhood of Riverdale, New York and 50 megaton bombs were hitting 5 cities with populations over 1 million people.
On the map, you can see the horrible destruction--gone is Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C.
The concentric circles around each blast shows 5 levels of devastation as follows (associated with the colors zones of red, pink, orange, yellow, and clear/outside the blast):
Devastation
This is not a pretty picture and warrants our consideration of how critically important is missile defense and homeland security is.
This position was advocated by the late Dr. Fred Ikle the former Pentagon official who passed away this week on 10 November 2011--Ikle challenged the status quo policy of MAD asking "Why should mutually assured destruction be our policy?" -WSJ
I, for one, don't like any of the 5 scenarios above and would like to keep our society and way of life going with a strong national security posture that includes the gamut of diplomatic, defensive, and offensive capabilities for safeguarding our national security.
With this in mind, this coming week with the deadline for Super Committee to come up with recommendations for reducing our budget deficit or else the automatic $1.2 trillion cut goes into effect--half of which is to come from the Department of Defense is extremely concerning.
Moreover, with well-known hostile nations having achieved (North Korea) or very near to achieving (Iran) nuclear weapons capabilities, we must take the threats of nuclear attack to us and our allies very seriously or else we can end up with not just scary looking colored concentric circles on a map, but the very real deadly effects they represent.

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