Follow Your Inner Voice

As Steve Jobs said:

Follow your heart and intuition.

Do good!  ;-)

(Credit Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Follow Your Inner Voice

Don't Trust Your Gut Alone

Please see my new article in The Times of Israel called, "The Snake That Appeals To Your Gut."

The truth is, following one’s gut feelings alone is a way to avoid confronting or dealing with real data about what’s going on. While it’s true that information can be tough to get as well as to interpret, we certainly have to look not only at people’s words, but also at their deeds. We have to see them over an extended period of time, so we see whether there is consistency and if their integrity holds up under different situations and stressors.

We have hearts and minds and we need to make sure we are using both in making important decisions. Otherwise, see no evil, speak no evil, hear no evil—and what do you think you are precisely going to get?

(Credit Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Don't Trust Your Gut Alone

Strategy, Strategery, Stratego

Like the all knowing eye...

Strategy is our way of trying to forge a coherent path ahead. 

Of course, as humans, we are imperfect and don't know what we don't know. 

But whether we call it strategy, strategery, or stratego, the goal is to have a method to our madness. 

We can't just rely on luck, gut, intuition, or subjective whim to get us wherever. 

Having no strategy is brainless following or aimless wandering. 

Strategy means your thinking ahead what you want to achieve and then at least trying your best to accomplish something. 

Ample course corrections allowed and encouraged, as needed. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Strategy, Strategery, Stratego

Poor Decision-Making Inc.

(Click the image for larger size)
___________________________

There is a funny Organization Chart of Indecision by Corter Consulting circulating on the Social Media. 

This graphic (above) by me can be thought of as the corollary for Poor Decision-Making.

It is headed by the Chief, Bad Decisions.

Supporting the Chief is the EVP of Strong-Arming.

Reporting to the Chief are 6 VPs of:

- Haste

- Intuition

- Incompetence

- Misinformation

- Narcissism

- Corruption

Followed by 16 Directors of:

- Get It Over With
- It's Too Hard

- Feelings
- Myths
- I Just Don't Know

- Ignorance
- Ineptitude

- Lack of Data
- Bad Data
- Misinterpretation

- What's In It For Me (WIIFM)
- Legacy
- Arrogance

- Fraud
- Waste
- Abuse

Hope you enjoy this Org Chart of Poor Decision-Making and I look forward to your comments on it. 

(Source Graphic: Andy Blumenthal)

Poor Decision-Making Inc.

When In Doubt

I like this sign that I saw in a local place of business that buys and sells goods. 

"When in doubt--PASS!"

How many times are we faced with a challenging situation, and we are not quite sure what to do.

We hem and haw and go back and forth in our minds whether we should really do it?

But like my wife and I came to with decision-making in general a while ago, "If it isn't yes, then it's no."

When that little something inside is giving you pause, doubt, and holding you back...there is usually a very good reason. 

STOP yourself right there--listen to your gut and instinct.

If you don't, you'll pay the price afterwards for making a bad call that you knew deep down was a big no-no to begin with. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy and Dossy Blumenthal)

When In Doubt

Living In Fuzzyland

There was a very good piece in the New York Times by Steven Kurutz called "The 'Kind of' 'Sort of' Era".

The point of which you can, kind of, figure out.

We sort of come across as if we don't know what we are talking about.

It drives us crazy when our kids seem to constantly use that sort of language. 

We tell them to cut it out, but they, kind of, don't listen.

So now the contagion has spread and adults (many of which are in powerful positions) have adapted this tentative language, and sort of feel better using it. 

Why?

Because either they really often dunno what the heck they are talking about or just want to score political points, and so it kind of makes sense.

What? you say--all the "Geenius" pundits, researchers, academics, government officials, big company bosses kind of don't know? 

Ah yeah--we often discuss ad nauseam, throw in a few numbers or spurious "facts" and then sort of just make our best "guesstimate."

Usually, it's kind of like our gut, intuition, whims, politics, or personal agendas drive our approach or decisions as much as anything else.

This is reflected in what is often sort of wishy-washy deliberations and back and forth "decision-making."

Most of the time the answers are obvious....

- Disease Management: Make an ebola quarantine. SAFEGUARD AMERICAN LIVES.

- Terrorism: Put "boots on the ground." INEVITABLE.

- National Security: Cut a bad deal with longtime enemies building dangerous weapons of mass destruction. RIDICULOUS.

- Economy: Balance the budget for our children.  BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE.

The list goes on and on...

Kurutz is right--we are uncertain about what we are saying and doing, and this is reflected in our "hedge-speak" and our one-foot-in tactics, getting us sort of nowhere as a country. 

I for one am fed up with all this kind of/sort of stuff, and think we need to take a stand, speak the truth, make important decisions, and move forward from fuzzyland where we are now all living. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Living In Fuzzyland

Parole By Analytics

Interesting article in the Wall Street Journal about parole boards using software to predict repeat offenders before letting someone go free. 

What used to be a decision based on good behavior during time served, showing remorse to the parole board, and intuition is being augmented with "automated assessments" that include inmate interviews, age of first arrest, type of crime, and so forth.

At least 15 states have adopted "modern risk assessment methods" to determine the potential for recidivism. 

Individuals are marked as higher risk if they are:

- Young--age 18-23 (and impulsive)
- Offense was drug-related
- Suspended or expelled from school
- Quit a job prior to having another one 
- Single or separated
- Diagnosed with a mental disorder
- Believes that it's not possible to overcome their past. 

Surprisingly, violent criminals (rapists and murders) are actually considered lower risk those guilty of nonviolent property crimes--the thinking being the someone convicted of robbery is more likely to repeat the criminal behavior because the crime is one that "reflects planning and intent."

Honestly, I think it is more than ridiculous that we should rank violent criminals less risky than thieves and release them because they had what is considered an "emotional outburst."

Would you rather have some thieves back on the street or murders and rapists--rhetorical question!

But it just shows that even the best of systems that are supposed to help make better decisions--can instead be misused or abused.

This happens when there is either bad data (such as from data-entry mistakes, deceptive responses, and missing relevant information) or from poorly designed decision rules/algorithms are applied.

The Compas system is one of the main correctional software suites being used, and the company Northpointe (a unit of Volaris) themselves advise that officials should "override the system's decisions at rates of 8% to 15%."

While even a 1/7 error rate may be an improvement over intuition, we need to still do better, especially if that 1 person commits a violent hideous crime that hurts someone else in society, and this could've been prevented. 

It's certainly not easy to expect a parole board to make a decision of whether to let someone out/free in 20 minutes, but think about the impact to someone hurt or killed or to their family, if the wrong decision is made. 

This is a critical governance process that needs:

- Sufficient time to make important decisions
- More investment in tools to aid the decision process
- Refinement of the rules that support release or imprisonment
- Collection of a broad base of interviews, history, and relevant data points tied to repeat behavior
- Validation of information to limit deception or error.

Aside from predicting whether someone is likely to be repeat offenders, parole boards also need to consider whether the person has been both punished in accordance with the severity of the crime and rehabilitated to lead a productive life going forward. 

We need to decide people's fates fairly for them, justly for the victims, and safely for society--systems can help, but it's not enough to just "have faith in the computer." ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Parole By Analytics