On the Lookout To Managing Risk

So risk management is one of the most important skills for leadership. 

Risk is a function of threats, vulnerabilities, probabilities, and countermeasures. 

If we don't manage risk by mitigating it, avoiding it, accepting it, or transferring it, we "risk" being overcome by the potentially catastrophic losses from it.

My father used to teach me when it comes to managing the risks in this world that "You can't have enough eyes!"

And that, "If you don't open your eyes, you open your wallet."

This is a truly good sound advice when it comes to risk management and I still follow it today. 

Essentially, it is always critical to have a backup or backout plan for contingencies.

Plan A, B, and C keeps us from being left in the proverbial dark when faced with challenge and crisis. 

In enterprise architecture, I often teach of how if you fail to plan, you might as well plan to fail. 

This is truth--so keep your eyes wide open and manage risks and not just hide your head in the sand of endless and foolhardy optimism for dummies. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

On the Lookout To Managing Risk

Silence Or Violence

So when it comes to "Crucial Conversations," they unfortunately frequently end in silence or violence.

When the "stakes are moderate to high, opinions vary, and emotions run strong" that's when communication really seems to break down, rather than achieve their goals of working things out. 

Like when our lives are in danger and we have the adrenalin rush reactions to fight or flight, similarly with potentially "dangerous" communications, people become aggressive and abusive or shutdown and withdraw. 

When your afraid of a negative outcome, either you start hammering others with your ideas and opinions or you exit the conversation and seek safety. 

Either way, at this point, there's no real common ground, negotiation, compromise, or win-win to be easily had...in this pressure cooker poor excuse of a dialogue, it can basically become a tragic win-lose situation.

Perhaps, that's why there are mediators and neutral third parties that are often brought in to make people feel (relatively) safe again, help them be understood and to understand, and to find a negotiated peace or settlement. 

And what happens when even this doesn't work and communication and diplomacy fails?

Well that's when people and countries bring out the big guns and they essentially go to war to win what they hoped to achieve with dialogue. 

Now words are no longer the only choice, but all options are on the table, and that's when benign words can quickly turn into more drastic or deadly deeds (aka the children reframe of "Sticks and stones can break my bones, but words will never harm me."

And there is always the thermonuclear option--people supported it with Japan in WWII and they say they would support it with a Tehran that violates the very generous nuclear deal they received.

Words are a prelude to a possible peace or an unwanted war. 

They can be the last chance to work things out the way we hope for.

And if words alone can't resolve the issue, then blood and treasure is spent and spilt to resolve the otherwise unresolvable. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Silence Or Violence

Hey, Pay Attention

It's funny, when the way forward is uneven, broken, or fraught with danger, and someone just puts out a sign (and orange cone) warning you to be careful. 

Sure, it's the responsible thing to do--protect people from misstepping. 

But even with the largest, loudest warnings, there always seem to be some people who just go right ahead anyway and tempt fate--they step on that 2nd broken stair.

Maybe it doesn't give way (this time for this person) or maybe it does.

But they are too busy, too much in a rush, or too cocky to pay heed or else they like to play the odds--hey, what are the odds that something will actually happen to "me"?

The more cautious, perhaps smarter folks look for another way--using their ingenuity to go over, under, or around the obstacle in their path--in this case stepping over the broken 2nd step. 

Other may yet be deterred altogether and just turn backwards, giving up on their trek or just stop in their tracks like a deer in the headlights frozen by indecision.

I'd suggest that it is well worth it to take the time to look around you, sense the environment, and make a sound judgement before giving up or stepping stupidly into the ditch, minefield, quicksand, or on the broken step. 

It's much harder to get out of trouble than to avoid it to begin with. 

I joke with one of my colleagues that they always have time to do things a second time (always!), but because they are rushing, never enough time--or focus--to do it right the first one. 

Watch your step, because some of them of definitely broken. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Hey, Pay Attention

Why Would ANYONE Close Gitmo?

So over and over again, we read about the desire and promise by some to close Guantanamo Bay ("Gitmo")--the prison for terrorists against the U.S. 

What are the reasons given and do they make any sense?

1) It's costly--Yeah, it's costly to house prisoners, especially incredibly dangerous ones like terrorists who commit mass murder like in 9/11, but what is the cost of letting them go free, especially when the known recidivism rate of the released detainees is close to 29%!

2) It inspires other terrorists--Really, since when does imprisoning bad apples inspire other bad apples. Isn't one of the well-recognized and intended purposes of incarceration is to dissuade and deter bad behavior, as well as to rehabilitate. Even according to those who question the effectivenss of the deterrent capability of prison, studies show that it should be used to "incapacitate offendors (particularly, those of a chronic, higer risk nature)." In other words, we need to take and keep the terrorists off the battlefield!

Can an argument be made to bring the terrorists into prisons on American soil? Sure, but it makes a lot more common sense not to bring terrorists into the American heartland and risk further violence and danger to our citizens from known terrorists and their jihadist associates. 

Additionally, after 9/11 and the loss of almost 3,000 people, our brave U.S. serviceman and women spent a lot of time and hard work and risked their own lives to capture these dangerous terrorists...why would we want to release the terrorists endangering our military and our citizens all over again (especially when the threat has not abated--see below)?

Has the threat of terrorism gone away that we can say the war on terror is over and so let's send the terrorists home (the question itself almost sounds ludicrous for anyone living in the age of ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Boko Haram, and more)?  Well, according to the RAND research experts, "there has been an INCREASE in the number of Salafi-Jihadist groups, fighters, and attacks." 

And after the recent attacks in Paris, San Bernardino, the downing of the Russia airliner, and many other terror strikes, it is no surpurse that "Americans name terrorism as the No. 1 U.S. problem."

Perhaps, this helps us understand why Congress is blocking the closing of Gitmo, and why none of us should be able to understand why violent, dangerous terrorist detainees are continuing to be released to hurt U.S. citizens again.

(Source Photo: here with attribution to JBrazito)

Why Would ANYONE Close Gitmo?

It's Not About The Regrets

So a teacher recently gave her students a scenario with the following moral dilemma:

An important and talented surgeon who has saved many lives in the past and will surely save many more in the future runs across an old man who has slipped and fallen under the cracking ice into a lake after trying unsuccessfully to save his puppy from drowning.  

The old man is trapped and will freeze to death in short order.

Should the surgeon walk across the breaking ice and risk his own life to try and save the old man?

The vast majority of students' responded...that the surgeon should try and save the old man.

When asked why they thought that, most said because otherwise he would feel guilty afterwards. 

Thinking about that it seems like a funny reason to do something dangerous, heroic, and maybe utterly stupid...so as not to feel guilty. 

I guess that I would've thought people who would advocate for trying to save the old man would say something like

- Every life is valuable!
- Saving one person is like saving the world.
- Helping people even at our own risk or peril is what we do for our fellow human beings.
- We would want others to help us if we were in trouble, so we should do that for them. 

While we can't judge someone else for how they react in situations of genuine moral conflict, we can teach the younger generation that doing something good for others is about more than just not feeling bad or guilty afterwards (for being lazy, selfish, or making the wrong call in the situation).

Making moral judgements is about choosing in every situation to try your best to do what's right, help people, be a good influence, take responsibility, and generally act selflessly, but not recklessly. 

Regret stinks (and can be truly painful), but missing opportunities to live a good, meaningful life is much worse. ;-)

(Source Photo: The Blumenthals)

It's Not About The Regrets

If Terror Fits

There is the old saying that "If the shoe fits, wear it" or as this holiday shopping sign says, "Buy it!


I know everyone has their personal filters through which they see the world--many of these come from family, friends, community, teachers, religion, personal experiences, or even innate personality.


One thing that I think many people are struggling with these days with politics is what possible filters are guiding many concerning policies of our country resulting in:


- The tepid response to terror attacks on this country as well as in Paris, London, and Jerusalem.


- The clamping down on free speech in the wake of terror.


- The lax immigration checks on refugees.


- The dangerous spread of ISIS after the withdrawal from Iraq.


- The disappearing red line in Syria.


- The emboldening Iranian nuke deal.


- The bias perceived against friend and ally, Israel.


- The unbriddled Russian resurgence.


- The lumbering pivot to address Chinese militarization.


We are living in chaotic world times, and we need strong hands on the rudder to safeguard the people and future of the country--for that we need to understand where politics and politicians are coming from that may be leading to either sound or compromised decisions and the resulting return and risk to the fate of us all. ;-)


(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

If Terror Fits

Are We Ready For Anything?

So contingency planning is a critical part of risk management.

You never know what can happen in life...

So you must have a solid business continuity plan (BCP) and disaster recovery plan (DRP). 

That way in case of natural disaster or terror attack--we are prepared!

So what was really sad-funny this week was when I became aware of an annual contingency planning exercise that was being conducted as a table-top exercise--that's legit. 

It was well-planned, scripted to really challenge the participants, and I heard it went very well.

But then just that evening as it turned out there was a real contingency.

What happened?

Everyone was working well to address what happened and how to fix it and kudos to some super great people. 

The only problem was no one seemed to really know or was following what to do from a contingency plan perspective.

In the end everything turned out fine, but it was incredible how planning and training can deviate so far from real life. 

It's like in school, when administrators conduct fire drills for the teachers and students and everyone gets up like good boys and girls and goes out in an orderly fashion, maybe even in a nice buddy system, but then when G-d forbid there is a real fire, everyone starts screaming and running crazed for the exits. 

Perhaps table top exercises should be thrown out the window and testing should be conducted with realistic scenarios and under mandated lifelike circumstances. 

Instead of smoke and mirror planning, we need serious preparation for the day when it isn't child's play or cool drawings on the whiteboard only. ;-)

(Source Photo: here with attribution to Sharyn Morrow)

Are We Ready For Anything?

Fearless = Reckless

I took this photo in the Metro in Washington, D.C. 

It says, "Be Fearless."

Why?

No, it doesn't pay to be wholly fearful--and paralyzed by anxiety or indecision. 

But it is stupid to be fearless--because being fearless is being reckless. 

It's good to think about possibilities and consequences--not everything that can go right will and more often then not, as Murphy's Law teaches, whatever can go wrong often does.

Better to think about what can happen--both good and bad--how to manage the risks and how to maximize the rewards.

Have fear of heaven and of bad things--and try to make them better, where you can. 

Fearless is for those who want to be stupid, act reckless, and end up mortally wounded or prematurely dead. 

Fearsome is for those who want to confront their fears head on, manage them wisely, and make the most of the opportunities in a risk-reward managed way. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Fearless = Reckless

Apple Desperately Needs Some New Fruit

I love my Apple iPhone, but this core product debuted in January 2007.

We're going on almost 9 years!!!

Don't get me wrong, the iPhone is enormously successful:

- It accounts for 92% of the smartphone industry's profits (even though it only sells 20% of the smartphones). 

- The iPhone bring in almost 2/3 of Apple's total revenue now going on almost $200 billion. 

But, the new growth that Apple seeks in not based on any real exciting innovation.

Take for example Apple's announcements this week:

- A new larger 12.9 inch iPad with a stylus (the Apple Pencil).

- A revamped Apple TV set-top box. 

- Apple's iPhone 3-D Touch that controls the smartphone based on how hard you press. 

Uh, ho-hum--this is all V-E-R-Y boring!

Google has a similar problem with their core business of advertising on Search and YouTube accounting for 89% of their revenue.

But at least Google continues working towards their next moonshot, and has reorganized their innovation labs into a separate entity called Alphabet--working on everything from:

- Self-driving cars

- Delivery drones

- Internet balloons

- Smart thermostats (Nest)

- Broadband services (Google Fiber)

- Longevity research (Calico)

- Smart contact lenses

- Robotics

Unfortunately for Apple, the death of Steve Jobs in 2011 has meant the loss of their driving force for innovation. 

Despite a workforce of about 100,000 and a gorgeous new flying saucer-looking headquarters, can you think of any major new products since Jobs?

Apple is a fruit in it's prime--ripe and shiny and hugely smart and successful, but without any new fruits going forward, they are at risk of becoming a stale mealy apple, versus a bountiful and delicious fruit salad. 

Apple is very secretive, so maybe the fruit is coming. 

I hope for our sake and theirs that Apple is seriously planting for the future and not just harvesting on the past. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Apple Desperately Needs Some New Fruit

People Are Our Greatest Asset, Goodbye!

The Chinese are smart and talented, and there is a cyberwar going on. 

They are suspected are having just stolen the personnel information of 4 million federal government workers.

And there are 4.2 million active, including 1.5 million military personnel. 

So if as they are apt to say, "people are our greatest asset"...

...then we just sort of lost the CROWN JEWELS in terms of highly personal, sensitive, and critical information on the people that handle everything from defense and diplomacy to the economy, energy, the environment, justice, and health and wellbeing. 

Oops!

This is getting scary folks. 

When the adversary through cyber (and other) espionage can know our people, our technology, our communications, virtually everything...then we got some big vulnerabilities!

If we can't defend ourselves adequately (at least for now), I hope at least we are doing okay on the offense! ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

People Are Our Greatest Asset, Goodbye!

From Stability Comes Instability

I remember hearing the phrase (not sure from where), "everything and the opposite."

I think it refers to how within each thing in life are elements of the exact contrary and opposing force. 

Similar to the interactions of ying and yang, the world is an interplay of opposites--males and females, black and white, fire and water, ebb and flow, good and bad, optimism and pessimism, and so on. 

Everything has a point and it's counterpoint.

It was interesting to me to see this concept expressed in terms of the financial markets (Wall Street Journal), where bull and bear contend in terms of our finances.

But what was even more fascinating was the notion from the economist, Hyman Minsky, who noted that the very dynamic between stability and instability was inherent within itself.

So for example, Minsky posits that a stable economic market leads to it's very opposite, instability.

This happens because stability "leads to optimism, optimism leads to excessive risk-taking, and excessive risk-taking leads to instability" (and I imagine this works in reverse as well with instability-pessimism, retrenchment and limiting risk to stability once again).

Thus, success and hubris breeds failure, and similarly failure and repetitive trial and error/hard work results in success.

It is the interflow between ying and yang, the cycle of life, life and death (and rebirth), the seasons come and go, boom and bust, and ever other swinging of the pendulum being polar opposites that we experience. 

The article in the Journal is called "Don't Fear The Bear Market," I suppose because we can take comfort that what follows the bear is another bull. 

But the title sort of minimizes the corollary--Don't (overly) rejoice in the bull--because you know what comes next.

Go cautiously and humbly through life's swings.  ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

From Stability Comes Instability

Buyer Beware, Else Buyer Remorse

Just a quick lesson I wanted to share from my grandfather.

He used to say (or so my dad used to tell me), "You open your eyes or you open your wallet!"

Put another way is that "A fool and his money are soon parted."

But I like the way my grandfather put it even better--easier to remember and no name calling involved! ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Buyer Beware, Else Buyer Remorse

Governance, Pay Attention

So I chose this photo to represent bad governance. 

The governing board covers their ears, eyes, and mouth.

Because they hear and see no evil and speak no truth. 

They are deaf, blind, and dumb--they provide no real oversight. 

Simply choosing to collect their pay checks and stock options for residing on the governance board.

This is their payoff--not to govern--but rather to shut up and stay out of it!

I read a good overview of what governance is supposed to be and comparing it to management functions (Reference: Exam Preparation Course in a Book for Passing the CISM):

• "Oversight versus Implementation
• Assigning Authority versus Authorizing action
• Enacting policy versus Enforcing policy
• Accountability versus Responsibility
• Strategic planning versus Project planning
• Resource allocation versus Resource utilization"

When the board does their job, then the organization has a business strategy, manages risks, allocates resources, delivers value, and measures and monitors performance. 

In other words, no more acting like a bunch of out of control monkeys. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Governance, Pay Attention

In Case Of Emergency

Washington D.C. Metro Emergency Instructions

Ugh, long and boring.

How 'bout this instead:

- Don't Freak Out

- Don't Get Out 
(unless your in immediate danger)

- Don't Take Your Bulky Stuff Out

- Don't Fry When Your Out 
(stay away from the electrified 3rd rail--zap!)

Easy, smeazy. ;-)

[Note: Follow instructions at your own risk.]

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal - sorry so fuzzy, train was moving)

In Case Of Emergency

Who Makes Change Happen?

Well if "Station Managers do not make change" (happen), who does?

Personally, I like to see everyone think creatively about what they do and how they do it--looking for efficiencies and to create positive change, where warranted.

Not change for change itself...but where requirements have changed or methods and/or tools have changed to create opportunities or mitigate threats. 

While there certainly are "tied and true" ways of doing things, we are an evolving species, and change is fundamental to survival. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Who Makes Change Happen?

Don't Worry About It--Yeah Right!

Lately, with the Ebola outbreak, primarily in Africa, but unfortunately also spreading here into the U.S., we are hearing refrains from politicians and pundits, not to be afraid.

- It won’t come here.
- It’s hardly contagious.
- Out health care system is superior.
- It’s all under control.

But what we are finding is that the reassurances are mostly empty words to calm a growing restless public, who are justifiably afraid, and see little to no action from their leaders.

- Ebola has come here to Texas, Maryland, and New York.
- Experts now admit that you can even get Ebola from sweat on the bus, and they blame broken protocols (as yet to be identified) that inflected 2 nurses in Texas.
- Yes, our health system is superior, but we are mostly inexperienced with dealing with a true pandemic.
- Define, “It’s under control” as the CDC is now projecting 1.4M infected by January (and growing exponentially)!

This is like the old adage that we are always trying to fight the last war, and not preparing with an open mind for what the next one will look like.

Similarly, we fail again and again to predict the threats and risks that confront us...Pearl Harbor, 9/11, Depressions/ Severe Recessions, ISIS, and much more are evidence of this.

FDR said “There is nothing to fear but fear itself,” but this is dead wrong.

I am afraid that we are not fearing enough (or that even worse, we are afraid to fear)--when this is perhaps of as great, if not of greater importance to adequately preparing ourselves to the immense challenges ahead of us.

Fear can cause paralysis or even chaos, but fear can also drive intelligent preparation, innovation, and life-saving measures.

Lately, many have said to me that unhealthy eating or gun violence is what we should fear and act on, and I think this is truly narrow vision.

We can’t live with heads in the sand, because there are multiple issues that we must confront.

True, we don’t have unlimited resources to address everything 100%, but as I’ve been telling people, we can worry about multiple issues (and I certainly do), work to address them with common sense—in other words, walk and chew gum at the same time!

Everyone seems to have their pet peeve issue that they want politicians to address, but we don’t have the luxury of paying attention to those that big mouths, lobbyists or politicians elevate to fear factor status, and ignoring others that may pose real significant threats to us. 

Frankly, I would rather be a little needlessly afraid, but more thoughtful, prepared/protected, and ahead-of-the-curve in addressing issues, than fearless, foolhardy, not ready, and extremely sorry later. 

While Ebola may or may not be catastrophic to us, when you hear coldly, almost matter-of-factly, “Don’t worry about it,” while thousands are dying and many more horrific deaths are at hand, and we are told by the U.N. that there is no real plan if things continue to go south, then be afraid, be very afraid--and let that guide you to creative problem-solving, and not deer in the headlights inaction. 

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Don't Worry About It--Yeah Right!

Shining A Light On Your Privacy

Check out this special report...

~Half a billion~ downloads of the top 10 Flashlights Apps--the ones we all have on our smartphones--and guess what?

All/most are malware/spyware from China, India, and Russia that are spying on you!

Your contacts, banking information, even your location, is being intercepted by hackers abroad,

The cybersecurity experts Snoopwall (that conducted this study and are offering a free opensource "privacy flashlight") are recommending that you don't just uninstall these flashlight apps, because they leave behind trojans that still are functioning behind the scene and capturing your information. 

So instead doing a backup of key information and then a factory reset of the smartphone is advised.

Pain in the you know what, but these flashlight apps are shining a light and compromising your personal information.

Snopes points out that the flashlight apps may be no more vulnerable to spyware than other apps you download and that perhaps the screening process from the app stores help to protect us somewhat.

When the cyber hackers decide to exploit those apps that are vulnerable, whether for political, military, or financial gain, it will likely be ugly and that flashlight or other app you use may prove much more costly than the download to get them. ;-)

(Thank you Betty Monoker for sharing this.)

Shining A Light On Your Privacy

9/11 Remembrance

"Never Forget Project" - 13 years after the tragic events of 9/11.

2,977 American flags at local university in Washington, D.C. 

Question: With all the weighty terror threats aroud the world, including the latest and largest from ISIS--is never forgetting the same as doing everything possible to make sure it doesn't happen again?  

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

9/11 Remembrance

Ebola On The Move

Watching this video of an ebola patient escaping quarantine and the panic in Liberia, it is hard not to be concerned about it coming here. 

Additionally, with a third American infected with Ebola overseas coming back home for treatment, and the CDC retesting a Miami patient negative for Ebola after having shown some symptoms, the stakes seem to be going up with this deadly disease. 

Just last Friday, GovExec reported that Ebola has a 18% chance of reaching the U.S. in September.

Moreover, if the outbreak is not contained the risk of it coming here is said to "increase consistently."

My daughter asked me the other day why commercial flights to/from the infected countries (not including aid delvieries) have not been cut off for now to help prevent the spread of the disease and save lives.

Unfortunately, I did not have a good answer to this, except that certainly there are economic and social implications to those countries in the short-term, but what are the potential costs to countless other global citizens if we do not do everything we can to adequately contain this outbreak?  

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Ebola On The Move

Chocolate Putin and Lemon ISIS

Ok, so Chocolate Putin and Lemon ISIS are a true recipe for global disaster. 

GLOBAL THREATS: With Chocolate Putin, we have the old Cold War back again (or maybe it was never really gone) with nation states facing off and state-of-the-art weapons galore such as thermonuclear ICBMs onshore, offshore, and aloft. And with Lemon ISIS, we have extremists posing a new level of terrorist threats such that we have never seen before with beheadings, crucifixions, and mass killings, and the potential for (very) dirty bombs. 

PSYCHOLOGICAL INTIMIDATION: While Chocolate Putin still denies his troops are even in Ukraine or that they all along wanted to harbor Snowden, Lemon ISIS tells the whole world they seek to establish a caliphate across the Middle East. Either way the psychological impact is to confuse and scare.

OPPRESSION OF THE PEOPLE: Both Chocolate Putin and Lemon ISIS declare that the people (along with their territory) in their sights are really wanting it--Ukrainians, Georgians, the Baltic States and Poland want to be Russian and maybe really are, while ISIS declares that good Muslims really want to live under strict Sharia law. The victims are not victims, they are willing participants in their own takeover. 

RULING BY AUTOCRACY: Chocolate Putin and Lemon ISIS rule by dictatorship with a supreme leader or all powerful president, the people must follow or be put in the gulag or hung by a tree limb. Either way, you will obey, freedoms begone, and the collective will be better off for it. 

The list of ingredients and description for world chaos and terror can go on and on here...but the point is that we are facing enemies that are digging in to inflict serious metabolic harm on us. 

While some may like chocolate Putin or Lemon ISIS, the results of closing our eyes to the calorie count will be catastrophic to a peaceful world order. 

(Source Photo for Lemon ISIS is Andy Blumenthal and for Chocolate Putin is here with attribution to jlib)

Chocolate Putin and Lemon ISIS