Are We Leading The World To The Brink

Thanks to some of the worst leadership in generations, we are bringing the world to the brink of disaster.

• Russia is raining bombs on Syria, massing on the border of Ukraine, threatening the Balkans, and holding massive nuclear drills, while talks break off with the U.S. 

• China is militarizing in the South China Sea, creating anti-access/area denial (A2/AD), and threatening freedom of navigation and armed conflict.

• Iran continues to swarm U.S. ships, take U.S. hostages, tightens their grip over the Middle East, sponsors terrorism as #1 in the world, builds more reactors and advances their nuclear strategy and threats to the West.

• North Korea is building and testing bigger nukes, firing multiple medium-range missiles as well as long-range ballistic missiles, including from submarines, and threatens nuclear strikes on South Korea and the U.S. 

In 1991, at the end of the Cold War and with nuclear disarmament initiatives underway, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists rated us at 17 minutes to midnight (the best it's ever been) on the famous Doomsday Clock that represents the countdown to global disaster. 

However by 2007, right before this administration, with far greater concerns of a nuclear terrorist attack, we were down to just 5 minutes to midnight.

And now in 2016, we are at a mere 3 minutes to midnight, and "the probability of global catastrophe is very high," as "world leaders had failed to act!"

Moreover, with the current slate of candidates for Presidency both receiving negative ratings of about 60% from registered voters, there is obviously great consternation by the people of the U.S. as well as the rest of the world on the direction we are going in or lack thereof. 

Again today, flailing on the leadership front in Syria, almost 6 years into the war there, we are again "considering tougher options" after the "red lines" were eviscerated, plan B never went anywhere, and we acknowledged that "we have no good options" there, while Russia is bringing in the big guns!

In dangerous world situations, the wrong action by leadership can spark an escalation and lead to negative consequences, but no action, displaying uncertainty and weakness, or attempting a losing appeasement strategy can lead to an even more emboldened enemy and then the Doomsday Clock can strike midnight and we can all pretty much just say one last goodnight. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Are We Leading The World To The Brink

U.S. Shuts Eyes To Syria and Ukraine

While we are willing to take in some refugees (true to "our values"), we are not willing to enforce "red lines" and stop the killing in Syria's almost 6-year murderous civil war. 

Incredibly, there are 500,000 killed (including 50,000 children) and another 2,000,000 wounded in the fighting already

Also, there are 6,000,000 internally displaced and another 4,800,000 refugees outside Syria causing a humanitarian crisis and destabilizing the region. 

Dictator Bashar Al Assad and most importantly, Russia seem unstoppable. 

Russia does not play by the West's rules--they make the rules!

While we threaten to cut off diplomatic talks, Russia continues the heaviest bombing of the war with 1,900 bombs on Aleppo in the last week alone.

The UN cries foul with empty threats of war crimes on the atrocities being committed, but again no one is willing to stop Russia.

Moreover, Russia brings in yet more advanced weaponry and warns the U.S. not to try to stop them in Syria (sound familiar to the 2014 blitzkrieg in Crimea/Ukraine?). 

Again, we are unwilling to stop the bombardment of almost 300,000 civilians in Aleppo with aid convoys, hospitals, schools, and bakeries all grotesquely now being fair game.

Last week, I watched 60 Minutes on CBS about our nuclear bomber fleet, and the rising threat of nuclear war with Russia.

What was particularly scary is that U.S. military strategists are now concerned that the U.S. is "sociologically weaker" than our opponents.

In particular, they worry that as Russia continues to threaten first use of nukes to meet their strategic aims with "an evolved willingness to employ nuclear weapons in the course of a conflict," they are counting on the U.S. to back down from any engagement or retaliation, because we would be so afraid of escalating with Russia, let alone using first. 

In other words, Russia does not consider the U.S. nuclear deterrent to be credible anymore--we are viewed as chicken and pushovers and Russia could simply "shock the Western powers into de-escalating."

First Ukraine and now Syria, what country is safe from the "Great Bear"--will the Balkans be next or perhaps somewhere even more deadly to a broken NATO and a farce of a UN. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

U.S. Shuts Eyes To Syria and Ukraine

Big Government Turnaround

So I took this photo of a handout being distributed at a major local university here in Washington, DC.

Sort of ironic for this sign that says:

"Big Government Sucks"

...to be handed out in the capital of the United States of America!

It would make sense that this negative notion of big government is connected to the low approval ratings of Congress (17%) and government services (64.4) provided.

People are seeing and sensing that big government is bad government when it is:

- Dictatorial, corrupt, and discriminatory. 

- Mired in fraud, waste, abuse, and coverups. 

- Self-serving for the politicians that are elected to serve the people. 

- When it is bureaucratic and ineffective. 

- When it is confused and without vision or plan for the country. 

- When it's indecisive, makes bad decisions, or can't successfully execute short- and long-term on it's mission. 

- When it is lacking in basic values of democracy, freedom, and human rights for all. 

At the same time, big government can be great government, when it is a beacon of light for its citizens and for the nations of the earth. 

- When it protects us from dictators, demagogues, terrorists, weapons of mass destruction, criminals, and all sorts of disasters.

- When it holds strong and cutting-edge the economy, prosperity, innovation, education, and competitive advantage of the nation. 

- When it safeguards and keeps sustainable the environment for future generations. 

- When it preserves and fortifies freedom, human rights, social equity, equality, and justice. 

- When it looks after the needy and less fortunate.

- When it lead the world in exploration, discovery, partnerships, and ultimately doing good for the people, the planet, and our future. 

Big government sucks when it goes wrong and then they start handing out these sad signs on our nation's premier college campuses. 

This is a big problem to turnaround?  

But with smart, committed, and moral leadership, it can be done! ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Big Government Turnaround

Shooting Blanks

Like this joke gun, this unfortunately is our national standing as a paper tiger in the new world order.

Just this last week...

1) China: "To diminish the US," our President is forced to disembark from the underbelly of Air Force One, because they wouldn't give him mobile stairs, let alone a red carpet welcome, while they continue the illegal buildout in the South China Sea threatening freedom of navigation of the seas. 

2) Russia: Russia stares down our President and ignores 17 U.S. overtures to end the more than 5-year civil war in Syria that has cost over 400,000 lives, made 5 million refugees, and over 8 million more displaced, and let's not even talk about Ukraine. 

3) Iran:  For the second time in as many weeks, Iran has sent numerous speedboats to harass U.S. Navy ships in international waters in the Persian Gulf, and this after it was just disclosed that we sent 2 more plane loads of cash to Iran--3 in total for $1.7 billion to "leverage" another hostage release by Iran--and after we chased them on a deal to remove sanctions on their dangerous nuclear WMD development. 

4) North Korea: 3 more midrange ballistic missiles were fired from North Korea toward the Sea of Japan in a continuing escalation of hostilities there on top of prior long-range and submarine-based missile launches further threatening the U.S. 

5) Laos: Even in the traditionally friendly country of Laos, the President is snubbed by terrible name-calling and insults and is forced to cancel his meeting with their leader. 

6) Trade pacts:   Whether your looking east or west, both the Transatlantic Trade Deal (TTIP) and the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) are dead, while Brexit is a fait accompli, the setback to the world economy, trust, and collaboration is tangible. 

7) Terrorism: The "U.N. warns of growing Islamic terrorist threats" as more than 500 have been murdered in the last 6 months alone from Belgium to the U.S., and the threat growing from a more decentralized worldwide terrorist apparatus, as well as the potential employment of weapons of mass destruction. 

Whether with regards to other world powers or global alliances, our standing in world affairs in troubling at best and seriously threatened at worst.  

As long as we are shooting blanks of blue stardust, we will continue to lose credibility, respect, and the ability to effect positive change and influence in an increasingly dangerous world. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Shooting Blanks

Why Are We So Unconfident?

So I took this photo today at Harpers Ferry, West Virginia. 

"We are strong!

We are positive!

We will survive!" 

Does someone who says these things sound like they really believe it or far more likely, it is that they need to tell themselves these things, because they are really not feeling so confident after all?

What's the unfortunate message behind these words?  

- We spend $610 billion on defense--more than the next 8 super nations combined--yet somehow we feel vulnerable and weak, especially with terrorism and a resurgent Russia and China. 

- We are so fortunate to live in freedom, democracy, seeming prosperity, and have everything to be positive and thankful about--yet 80% are dissatisfied and think we are heading in the wrong direction. 

- We are the world's superpower of nations--with wealth, armaments, a seat on the UN security council, and more than 800 bases around 80 countries in the world--"more than any other people, nation, or empire in history," yet most Americans think we're faring poorly and that their children will be worse off than themselves!

How can so much security result in so much insecurity?  

The answer should be obvious.

When people don't believe in the wisdom of their leaders, then no matter what they have or spend or where they are coming from, they are at risk of losing it all.

Poor leadership means corruption, fraud, waste, abuse, and absolute bad decision-making for this nation. 

We don't believe we are strong, because we see other nations spending less on their defense, yet getting more in terms of security for the people.

People don't feel positive, because they don't see good decisions being made, progress toward a better future, and confidence in the future being shaped. 

Questions about our very survival are surfacing because:

- We have seen millions of jobs disappear to our competitors overseas

- Our national debt balloon to near catastrophic levels (and with no tangible benefit to average Joe citizen as everything from our education system to our roads and bridges are falling apart)

- Bankruptcy to the critical entitlement pillars of Social Security and Medicare are being regularly forewarned. 

- Corrupt politicians who are supposed to be looking after us and effectively governing us are instead doing terrible wrongs, yet they are endlessly allowed to be above the law. 

- There is non-stop global terrorism and a reluctance to even call it what it is let alone truly fight to win. 

- We face out of control proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and yet remove sanction and release hundreds of billions of dollar to the largest state sponsor of terrorism and human rights abuses. 

- Open hostility to the U.S. is present as nations are doing what they want whether it terms of nuclear and ballistic missile development and testing in Iran and North Korea, using chemical weapons on civilians in Syria, annexing Crimea, buzzing U.S. planes and ships and conducting cyber war by Russia, and orchestrating a vast military build up in the South China Sea--and all without meaningful consequences.

So everyone repeat after me: 

"We are strong!

We are positive!

We will survive!" 

If you say it enough, you may actually start to believe it. 

Then again, if you start listening to your true inner feelings, you may start to see the vast political gimmickry being played out on you. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Why Are We So Unconfident?

America's Great Disappointment

So the Wall Street Journal asks today,"Why [Is] This Recovery Is So Lousy"?

They say that with Obama, "No president was ever better positioned to lead a strong recovery...no resources were spared...yet not once in the last seven years has annual economic growth ever reached [even] 3%."

But the news gets worse, in fact, "U.S. GDP grew a disappointing 1.2% in the second quarter...[and] economic growth is now tracking at a 1% rate in 2016...that makes for an average annual 2.1% rate since the end of the recession."

And that is after Obama's $836 billion stimulus and $3 trillion in Federal reserves injected into the economy!

The Great Recession may be the most disastrous economic results short of the Great Depression itself.

However, this is not the only reason Americas are disappointed with what they are getting from Washington (and we won't even talk about the candidates).

80% say we are heading in the wrong direction!  Let's repeat that again, 80% say we are heading in the wrong direction.

Harvard Business Review says it's not just the economy stupid, since we still [despite ourselves--with failing policies of enormous tax and spend and over-regulation] rank #5 on GDP per capita. 

Yet that doesn't translate into overall social progress for us.

Get this, the U.S. ranks 19th in social progress in the world--just one place above Slovena!

Why???

- We rank 26th on personal rights because of restrictions on freedoms like the right of assembly. 

- We rank 27th on personal safety because of high homicides and poor road safety.

- We rank 36th on environmental quality because of high greenhouse gases and poor water quality.

- We rank 40th on basic knowledge because of poor education and high dropout rates.

- We rank 68th on health and wellness because of suicides, obesity, cancer, and heart disease.

HBR points out that there may be individual reasons for each of these, but overall this is a bleak "troubling picture" and Trump isn't the one who painted it.

The sad fact is that one of the only things that the U.S. is ranking #1 in the world in is our national debt to everyone else...and this is being squandered. 

Think good and hard about the nation you are leaving your children and grandchildren...this is a horrible performance scorecard for America, the superpower!  ;-)

(Source of the amazing photo: Minna Blumenthal)

America's Great Disappointment

Setbacks Lead To Comebacks

My wife, Danielle Blumenthal, sent me this beautiful quote from Joel Osteen's book called, "It's Your time."

"For every setback, G-d has prearranged a comeback. 

For every failure, G-d has prearranged mercy. 

For every disappointment, G-d has prearranged restoration. 

For every unfair thing, G-d has prearranged vindication....

It's easy to get discouraged, lose your enthusiasm, or even be tempted to just settle where you are.

But if we're going to see G-d's best, when you get knocked down, you don't stay down. You get back up again.You have to know that every time adversity comes against you, it's a setup for a comeback."

Often we look at some people, and think that they have everything. 

But no one does--life is a bunch of trade-offs. 

Some are blessed with family and friends, others with health and longevity, and still others with peace or prosperity, but no one has it all. 

And if you think they do, then you don't really know them and their circumstances. 

In life, everyone has weaknesses, setbacks and failures...it's how we learn, it's how we grow.

Understanding that setbacks doesn't necessarily mean "game over" and that as long as there is life, there is hope, can give us the courage to go on, and the strength to get up when it seems like we are down for the count, and to make a comeback to live and thrive yet another day. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Setbacks Lead To Comebacks

State Of Education

So here's a sign at on the miserable state of education in America. 

"Develop Your English Skills For A Career In The Federal Government"

An advertisement in downtown, Washington, DC.

It's amazing that we can't assume proficiency in basic English skills.

Again, forget perhaps more challenging fields of the present and future such as science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM).

We can't even assume proficient English language skills for the Federal government in the Capital of this great country. 

Certainly, would understand the need for people with specialized foreign language skills for domestic positions as intelligence analysts and various overseas positions, but English???

There are more advanced degrees and certifications out there than over before, but are people really any smarter or ready for successful careers, life skills, and survival in modern-day America and the broader world. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

State Of Education

Unwillingness To Face Inconvenient Facts

The Wall Street Journal today has a poignant editorial by Daniel Henninger on the fractured nation we have become. 

Henninger describes the feeling of a country ranging from fury to depression when an underlying vibrant free nation is overcome by a political fantasy of global disengagement and a doctrine of leadership from behind.

And it's not just the continued downtrodden state domestically--see photo above from this morning's homeless and hungry on Washington, D.C.'s streets. 

But blinded by a fearful political undertone that can't even utter the words radical Islamists, we have taken it yet another wayward step further unable to utter the words terrorism.

With respect to the mass murder of at least 14 in California yesterday by--multiple Islamist attackers blasting off AR-15 assault rifles--the FBI in Los Angeles says this, terrorism "is a possibility, but we don't know that yet, and we're not willing to go down the road yet."

There is not even anymore a facade of objectivity where we say perhaps something like: it certainly look's like terrorism, but we need to investigate and verify--instead what we get is an unwillingness to face down our enemies and the terror of our times or even to openly consider the possibility. 

Ha, it COULD BE that these are 2 completely non-radicalized folks, who happen to have terrorist ties and communications, just found the guns and pipe bombs on the side of the road, got abducted by aliens who brainwashed them to commit mass murder, and just coincidentally after ISIS threatened attacks in the U.S.--anything is possible.

But terrorism--that's RIDICULOUS!

From the disgraceful suffering of the downtrodden and needy individuals on our streets across America to the global disorder that we are seeing daily, we are continuing to lose ground, respect, and time. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Unwillingness To Face Inconvenient Facts

"Chickenshit"?

Wow, what type of politician calls the Prime Minister of Israel, our "Major Strategic Partner," with an "unshakable bond," a "Chickensh*t"?

Yes, it's in the Washington Examiner today. 

Forget about being completely rude and disrespectful--how utterly impolitic!

Sinking to new political lows globally with our friends and allies--while the ratings sink (and sink) to new lows for these politicians. 

Imagine, Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu defends his nation by putting real boots on the ground in Hamas-run Gaza for the 50-days of fighting rocket barrages and terror tunnels, and builds apartments in Jerusalem, the Capital of Israel--Sorry, that is not Chickensh*t.

While domestically, we have been seen as in full global retreat, abandoning our bases in Iraq and Afghanistan, carpet bombing from the air in Syria and not punishing chemical weapons use (remember the "red line"), leaving key portions of Ukraine in the hands of Russia, seeking to forge WMD-losing deals with the devils in Iran, and watching the situation deteriorate as we "Pivot East" to Asia, and as we all know, much more. 

- Finanically--we can't balance a budget,
- Ebola Epidemic--we can't put together a sensible quarantine policy (while the States fill the void)
- Imigration--we can't muster a realistic bill
- Veterans--the scandal of not caring for our veterans is still scathing.

And the list goes on, virtually without end. 

Horrible name-calling and snubbing leaders on the world stage, let alone of our best allies and friends, is not only politically immature, but morally disgraceful--but psychological projection is a very real possibility.

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

"Chickenshit"?

Have Some Chutzpah

Nobody likes to get or feel rejected--whether asking someone on a date, applying for a job, coming up with a new idea...you don't want to get shot down...you want to be appreciated for who are you and what you "bring to the table." 

I used to have a teacher who used to tell his students "nobody appreciates how great you are like your mother does."

In other words, don't get overconfident and think your so smart, so good-looking, or so otherwise great--just because you received unconditional love from your parents--who tell you everything you do is so amazing and you are G-d's greatest gift to mankind--doesn't mean it's really true.

So get real about yourself!

Bloomberg BusinessWeek (7 January 2013) had an article about something called "Rejection Therapy"--where for 100 days, this guy--Jia Jiang--"makes at least one preposterous demand everyday" that get him "strange looks, rude comments, and outright dismissal."

He posts videos of this to his site entresting.com or "Hope from nope."

Jiang is trying to learn a little chutzpah and determination in the face of rejection--especially for landing some venture capital funding for a social networking app he wants to build. 

To teach himself to get out there, try his best, be willing to fall off the horse and get right back up again, Jiang now purposely seeks to get rejected every day--thinking that "Everybody has failures periodically. The people who are generally successful are the ones who bounce right back."

So he asks random people for crazy things...like a policeman, if he can sit in his/her squad car--just to see what happens and if he gets rejected whether he can brush it off--and generally be strong in the face of (repeated) failure and some accompanying adversity. 

It's a crazy experiment, but one that is getting Jiang noticed--maybe you've got to be a little crazy to stand out from the crowd. 
In the end, it's not about rejection, but about trying your best and being willing to take some bruises and bumps along the way to your goals. 

The path to success is littered with wounded and even dead bodies--to succeed you've got to have some chutzpah--plus a dose of resilience and perseverance--to get out there and try, try again. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Have Some Chutzpah

When Technology Fails, People Can Succeed

We were really happy to find the Sun Trolley in Ft. Lauderdale.

For 50 cents a person, you can ride between the beautiful beaches and downtown Las Olas Street where there are wonderful art stores, cafes, museums, and shopping. 

One day, riding the bus though, there was a technology failure that really made we think about the relationship between man and machine. 

On the bus, there was a elderly couple with a teenage girl and a young boy, who was in a wheelchair.

Driving along the beach (and hotels), the couple indicated to the driver that they wanted to get off (these buses don't stop at pre-assigned stops, but rather wherever people say they want to get on or off). 

The bus pulls over and the driver gets up and goes to the back of the bus, and he starts trying to work the device that make the bus wheelchair accessible.

But despite the driver trying to get the device to work, nothing happens.

The women and girl had already left the bus and where standing on the sidewalk waiting. The other people on the bus were waiting to get to their destination as well. And the man and the boy in the wheelchair seemed both embarrassed at the scene, but also worried how they were going to get this heavy wheelchair off the bus.

The driver pulls out some metal pole contraption and is trying to free the wheelchair accessibility device on the stairs--again, over and over--but still can't get the device to work. 

I thought about this poor family, but also about how dependent we are on technology and when it doesn't work--very often we are not sure what to do, because we just assume it will (like it always does, or is supposed to). 

When I saw that the driver was not going to be successful with getting the device to work, I got up and said to the man--can I help you (i.e. to help him with the wheelchair and boy).

Not sure how this elderly man and I would do it, I was glad when another man came forward and offered to help as well.

Between the three of us, we carried the boy and wheelchair down the stairs and off the bus, being careful that the boy was safe and comfortable. 

I was glad that we were able to help this family, but also continued to think that technology never will really be a substitute for people, because technology is not only developed, operated and maintained by people, but also that technology invariably can fail, and people must step up when it does. 

Technology is great when it works, but it is never failproof, so we had better be prepared for those days when systems go down and we must carry on. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

When Technology Fails, People Can Succeed

Go Safe or Go For It?

I came away with some thoughts on risk taking watching this scene from the movie "Lies and Alibis."

The girl says: "Simple is boring."
The guy answers: "Boring is safe."
The girl responds: "Safe is for old people."

(Note: nothing personal here to the elderly. Also, hope I didn't get the who said which thing wrong, but the point is the same.)

Take-a-way: Very often in life we aren't sure whether to take a risk or not. Is it worth it or is it reckless? And we have to weigh the pros and cons, carefully!

- We have to ask ourselves, where's the risk and where's the reward?

We have to decide whether we want to try something new and accept the potential risk or stay stable and go safe with the status quo that we already know.

At times, staying with a bad status quo can be the more risky proposition and change the safer option--so it all depends on the situation. 

- We also have to look at our capabilities to take chances: 

For example, in terms of age appropriateness--it can be argued that younger people can take more risk, because they have more time to recover in life, should the situation go bad. 

At the same time, older people may have more of a foundation (financial savings, built-up experience and education, and a life-long reputation) to take more chances--they have a cushion to fall back on, if necessary. 

- In the end, we have to know our own level of risk tolerance and have a sense of clarity as to what we are looking for and the value of it, as well as the odds for success and failure.

It's a very personal calculation and the rewards or losses are yours for the taking. Make sure you are ready to accept them!

Finally--always, always, always have a plan B. ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Go Safe or Go For It?

Beyond The Blame Game

It's funny, when things go well everyone seemingly wants to step up and take the credit, but when things go badly, therein starts the blame game.

Harvard Business Review (April 2011) presents three categories of people that react dysfunctionally to failure (to which it attributes the responses of 70% of the U.S. population!)

- Blame Others: look for someone to scapegoat, so they don't have to take responsibility themselves.

- Blame Yourself: judge yourself overly harshly or imagine failure where none exist.

- Deny Blame: "deny that failure has occurred or deny their own role in it."

A fourth category, I believe is when people:

- Blame G-d: they ask "why me?" somehow implying an unfairness, injustice, or randomness in the failure.

In all these reactions to failure, there are in my opinion a number of mistakes being made and ways to improve upon them:

- Focus - Instead of concentration on mission success, people may erroneously overemphasize attribution. However, rather than worry about who to blame, think about how to "right the ship;" there are people in the field depending on you!

- Balance - Blaming implies that you are focused on the failure, but usually there are some things that were done right and some things that were done wrong. There is usually more of a balance to every situation that blame does not lend itself to.

- Ownership - When we blame others, G-d, or even ourselves, we basically are throwing up our hands and abrogating control of the situation, when instead we need to take appropriate levels of responsibility and accountability for what we did and did not do (or as they say "sins of commission" and "sins of omission").

-

Learning - Blame is a dead-end--it leads to hard feelings and possibly even despair. The way out is to acknowledge mistakes usually to degrees by all involved and LEARN FROM THEM. A failure can be turned into opportunities for future success, but learning valuable lessons on how to do things better the next time around.

To be honest, we all make mistakes.

In fact, I would worry about someone who seems so perfect on the outside--because I would imagine that they are likely or probably a powder keg, ready to blow on the inside (ever hear of someone "going postal" or the star who seems to have it all--looks, fame and fortune--and then they overdose or drive off a cliff or something?)

No one has it all. No one is perfect. We are all human.

It's not about blame. It is about accountability and responsibility--making things right where we can.

Every day we learn and grow--that is our test and our trust.

(Cartoon Credit: Tandberg)

Beyond The Blame Game

When the Plan Fails and Enterprise Architecture

Enterprise architecture develops the roadmap for the organization and no roadmap is foolproof. With any roadmap, sometimes there’s a traffic jam, an overturned tractor-trailer, or a washed-out bridge. Whatever the scenario, the EA plan is not the right way to go all the time, every time. That is why the plans need to be agile and responsive to the events as they unfold on the ground.

Similarly, in our personal lives, not every road we take is going to lead us to success. In business school we learn that 90% of new businesses fail within the first 5 years. Nowadays, even marriages fail at a rate close to 50%. And according to ExecuNet, the “average executive tenure is less than four years…[and] 18% of executives do not survive their first year in a new job.” So as individuals and as organizations, we can plan for success, but there are no guarantees.

Fortune Magazine, 9 June 2008, reports “a reversal or two can pave the way to triumph…[or] adversity makes you stronger.” Here’s how you can persevere in the face of adversity (adopted from Fortune, but my thoughts on what they mean):

1. Calculated risk taking—just because you or your organization fails at something, doesn’t mean it’s the end of the line. You have to pick yourself back up onto the proverbial horse and start riding again. It is risky to keep trying, of course. Life is full of risks. You can’t avoid risk. So you take calculated risks and keep trying until you succeed.
2. Get rid of the naysayers—doubters and naysayers can take the wind out of your plans and ambitions. Yes, listen to reason and experience and learn from it. But don’t just abandon your dreams. If you believe you can do something and can make a difference, you owe it to yourself to try.
3. Live a purpose-driven life—similar to an organization needing a mission, vision, strategy, and architecture to provide a purpose and roadmap for the organization, so to an individual needs a purpose and a plan to advance their personal goals and aspirations.
4. Visualize success—I’ve heard this one many times used successfully for those in sports, entertainment, going into interviews, and even those with illness and disabilities. You have to train your mind to think, feel, and actualize the success experience. If you can just visualize success, you are truly a step closer to it.
5. Lessons learned---We all make mistakes. It’s part of being human. The key though is to learn from those mistakes, so that you do better the next time around. Life’s lessons build on each other. That’s why with age comes wisdom. Experience can go a long way to a new round of success.
6. Failure is not a life sentence—While we may certainly feel that failure is the end of the world, more often than not, failure is temporary. We’ve got to see past the failure—see the light at the end of tunnel and make our way toward it. That light is success waiting for us.

In the end, we have to be strong to deal with the bumps and bruises we call life. I see enterprise architecture as a structure for dealing with risk and uncertainty. In its most simplistic form, identifying where you are, setting a target of where you want to go, and charting a course to get there is a lens that we can use in almost every aspect of our organizational and personal lives. Rather, than wandering along aimlessly, let’s set a path and try to have an interesting journey filled with learning, growth and hopefully some success for our efforts.

When the Plan Fails and Enterprise Architecture