Showing posts with label Bioweapons. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bioweapons. Show all posts

July 30, 2023

We're Not Prepared

Please see my new article in The Times of Israel called "We're Not Prepared."

Whether it is our inability to imagine what can happen, our disbelief in it actually occurring, or our ineffectiveness or corruption to really prepare, we may be in serious peril from future threats that invariably await us. When that earthquake that we know is overdue hits the west coast hard, or a nuclear ICBM from North Korea or Iran hits somewhere in our mainland, or the next bio-weapon from China strikes our masses, or Russia cripples our satellites and Internet with one of their hidden Trojans or a zero-day cyber-attack, we can all shake our heads in utter disbelief again at how unprepared we are for the "next one."

Certainly, no one is invulnerable to tragedy, no preparation will ever be perfect, and we can never get everything right in responding to and recovering when disaster strikes, but if we don't stop the endless denial and infighting, allocate our limited resources with foresight and good cause, and make a determined and continued effort to get ready for what we know with virtual certainty looms large and threatens us, then we are unfortunately complicit in the tragic downfall that awaits.

(Credit Photo: Hitesh Choudhary via https://www.pexels.com/photo/man-pouring-water-from-dipper-on-blue-and-grey-house-1739855/)
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March 28, 2020

Don't Cough On Granny

So these are the signs of the times of Coronavirus. 

Pictures telling us not to cough on Granny. 

Cover your germy mouth!

Don't get the older and more vulnerable amongst us sick. 

I was in the elevator the other day, standing in the corner next to the elevator buttons. 

Someone else--an older person--gets on with a big (double size) shopping cart.

He's standing in the opposite back corner (kitty corner from me) with this huge cart between us. 

Then he starts yelling at me, literally, to "get in the corner!"

Ah, I'm already in the opposite corner. 

He's huffing and puffing angry that he wants me to literally get up against both walls. 

I was almost tempted to say something like maybe you should just get off and catch the next elevator Sir. 

But I held my tongue, in part out of sympathy for these elderly people who are obviously really scared (and maybe rightfully so) of the Coronavirus. 

Sometimes, I think to myself what if we were really hit at some point in the future with a very deadly bioweapon that was expressly designed to kill and to repulse any sort of countermeasures against it. 

What if the fatality rate was 1/3 to 2/3 of the population like in the Middle Ages Bubonic Plague or even higher like 100% of anyone that gets infected from a military-grade, genetically modified virus (similar to effects from Ebola). 

Maybe it's not good to ask what ifs, but if we are really going to learn anything from this, then I think we need to extrapolate from the relatively minor now to the potential major down the road. 

If you think we have hysteria, deaths, and $2.2 trillion U.S. impact now, this is just a glimpse of what could actually happen. 

We need to seriously rethink our disaster preparedness and response--big time.  ;-)

(Credit Photo: Andy Blumenthal)
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January 25, 2013

When Incremental Improvement Isn't Enough

One of the things that I love about the Intelligence Community (IC) is that they think future and they think big. 

Noah Schactman in Wired Magazine (12 December 12--great date!), gave a snapshot view of 2030 as provided by the National Intelligence Council (NIC). 

Some of the predictions (or aspirations) include:

Bioprinting such as creating 3-D printed organs (how's that for your orchestrating your own organ transplant?) 

Retinal implants for night vision thermal imaging, seeing the distance without binoculars, or even one-upping Google Glass by providing augmented reality in your eye instead of over it

Brain chips for superhuman thought and recall (those without remain doomed to brain farts, in comparison)

Bioweapons where DNA is used to target and take out people by genetically engineering viruses to attack them, specifically, without leaving any markers

People embedded in machines--reminiscent of when Ripley in the movie Alien enters in an exoskelton robotic suit to kick some Alien butt!

Other predictions include: megacities, climate change, big data clouds, aging populations, and more drones

While some of these advances are incremental in nature--for example genetic engineering and bioweapons are incremental steps from DNA sequencing of humans.

However, other leaps are more dramatic.

An article by Stephen Levy in Wired (17 January 2013) discusses how Larry Page (one of the Google founders) strives for inventions that are magnitudes of  "10x" (often actually 100x) better than the status quo, rather than just 10% improvements. 

Google has many examples of leaping ahead of the competition: from its transformative search engine which has become synonymous with search itself to Gmail which came out with 100x the storage of its competitors, Translations for the entire web from/to any language, Google Fiber with broadband at 100x faster than industry speeds prototyped in Kansas City, Google Books providing a scanned and searchable archive of our global collection of books and magazines, Google+ for social media (this one, I see as just a Facebook copycat--to get on Facebook's nerves!), Google Maps for getting around, Android their open platform operating system for mobile devices, and even self-driving cars--many of these are developed by Google X--their secret skunk work lab. 

I really like Google's concept of going for the "moon shot" rather than just tweaking technology to try and stay ahead of the competition, temporarily. 

And as in space, there is so much territory to explore, Google believes it is attacking just .1% of the opportunities out there, and that the tech industry as a whole is attacking maybe 1% in aggregate--that leaves 99% or plenty of opportunity for all innovators and inventors out there.

To get to 2030 and beyond--we're just at the tip of the innovation iceberg! ;-)

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

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November 9, 2012

Biowarfare: A Fight At The Molecular Level

There is a fascinating article in The Atlantic (November 2012) on an emerging bioweapons storm that is brewing that could be used in a decapitation strike to harm anyone, even the President of the United States. 

Advances in genetic engineering, biotechnology, and synthetic biology (Synbio) has been seen from decoding human DNA to the development of "magic bullets", personalized viral therapies that can target and destroy cancer cells.

However, just as most things can be used for good or evil--so too, can this biotechnology be used to target and destroy cancerous cells or perversely to attack healthy ones.

Bioweapons could be targeted to various parts of the body or brain to cause blindness, memory loss, or death itself. More subtly, it can be used to "fabricate evidence" of affairs, crimes, "cast doubt" as to birthplace or heritage, or as supposed markers for genetic diseases, and even mental disability. 

Moreover, while bioweapons of mass destruction can destroy virtually entire civilizations, personalized bioweapons can be engineered based on the manipulation of a specific person's DNA to attack that person--then just like a sniper, it becomes one shot, one (targeted) kill. 

Personalized bioweapons can be silent and deadly, difficult to detect, hard to pin on a source, and may even be confused with death by natural causes. 

And the cost is coming down...cell-culturing gear "can be had on eBay for as little as $10,000" or "cobbled together for less than $1,000."

Even non-weaponized use of this technology, can be extremely dangerous. For example, Synbio, can be used to "cut and paste" genetic code from one species to another, can be mixed from multiple species, and new creatures can be created altogether--all this potentially leading to frightening scenarios of "undesired cross-breeding with other organisms, uncontrolled proliferation, crowding out existing species, and threats to biodiversity." 

Already, "forty nations now host synbio research" and "The Beijing Genomics Institute...is the largest genomic research organization in the world."

The article speaks to various approaches to counter the personalized bioweapons threat including scientific task forces, bio-detectors, "Clean DNA" (as biological backup system), conducting biological war games, and open/crowdsourcing for solutions. 

It seems clear that the answers of how to defend against these emerging threats are not as good as the questions raised by them--and we will need to be vigilant and fast-track R&D in these areas, as we are still vulnerable. 

Further, I see some similarities between bioweapons, cyberweapons, and even legions of attack drones/droids, as all areas that are non-conventional and developing quickly and quite lethally. 

Unfortunately, we can't just put on a coat of armor and be safe from attacks at the molecular level, or from malicious code seeking to cripple our national critical infrastructure, or from robots that can stream across a battlespace attacking without fear, pain, or tiring. 

There is no simple paradigm for killing anymore and we better let our imaginations run wild, so we can figure out new ways to protect everyone--from the President and on down to us all.

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

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June 23, 2012

Biosecurity--Where Every Moment Counts

A biological attack on the United States is a most frightening prospect and one that could present an existential threat to us. 

Just the very mention of bio-warfare agents such as anthrax, ebola, smallpox, bubonic plague, and others are enough to provoke sheer terror in most people. 

BioWatch is a program managed by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in partnership with the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to monitor for a biological attack.

According to Bloomberg Businessweek (21 June 2012) bio-surveillance is currently conducted in 30 metropolitan areas around the country using 600 air filters to detect pathogens, where samples are collected daily and taken to labs for analysis in what amounts to a 36 hour turnaround to determine if there is a hazard. 

A new technology made by Positive ID or Northrop Grumman collects samples four times a day and analyzes it on the spot for bateria, viruses, and toxins, and sends the results to officials by secure network in as little as two hours. 

The shorter time to detection will give more time to save lives by getting drugs and vaccines to the field sooner and prevent the spread from person to person.  

DHS wants to deploy 2,500 of these new sensors and the bio-attack alert system at a cost of approximately $5.7 billion, if Congress approves. 

If this bio-sensing system proves out functionally, then the price tag seems well worth it. 

Bioweapons like cyber-attacks can cause widespread panic as well as disruption to our everyday way of life, however a bio-attack has the added feature of making people symptomatic and infecting them with deadly and painful illnesses. 

Cyber attacks can infiltrate and take out our critical infrastructure, but biological attacks can directly destroy our physical bodies and the population itself. 

A bio-attack and a cyber-attack together could devastate us by attacking us while at the same time inhibiting our ability to deliver medication and quarantine those that are ill and so on. 

In addition to grossly improving on our cyber defensive (and offensive) capabilities, we must do everything we can to enhance our biosecurity--this mean upgrading our preparedness for bio-terrorism and bio-warfare using the latest technologies available to sniff out and identify a bio attack and alert us so we can respond timely, while we still can. 

(Source Photo: here with attribution to U.S. Department of Defense)

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